Anchoring Disarray? The Middle East and the World in 2026

In recent years, the international system has grown increasingly volatile, marked by rising competition among great powers, growing skepticism of multilateralism, and mounting economic and technological fragmentation. A second Trump presidency has further unsettled traditional alliances and raised fresh questions about the future of U.S. global leadership and the shape of the emerging world order.

The panel will explore whether the world is indeed moving toward a multipolar system, and how key global and regional actors, among them China, Russia, Europe, and leading Middle Eastern states, are adapting to shifting geopolitical realities. It will also consider the consequences of U.S. reorientation, the reconfiguration of global institutions, and the broader implications for global stability.

Over the past two years, the Middle East has lived through a full escalation in the war between Israel and Iran and its so-called Axis of Resistance, with reverberations felt across Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and beyond. From direct strikes to proxy battles and covert operations, these confrontations have redrawn fault lines, changed regimes, and constantly raised the risk of broader regional conflagrations. At the same time, shifting global alliances, growing polarization, and the United States’ reluctance to be caught up in new wars in the Middle East have cast uncertainty over the region’s security architecture.

The panel will examine whether we are seeing a structural shift in the region’s security order. It will explore how the Middle East is adapting to new dynamics of deterrence, confrontation, and diplomacy. Panelists will also consider how the interplay between local conflicts and global power rivalries may shape the next phase of regional (in)stability.

As U.S. global leadership faces new challenges, the future of the international order is increasingly being shaped by competing regional visions, especially in Asia. From China’s assertive diplomacy and growing global footprint to India’s emergence as a strategic actor with its own worldview, global power is becoming more contested, decentralized, and complex. The conversation will explore how actors such as China and/or India see the evolving world order, what principles and interests guide their engagement, and how global institutions might adapt (or fracture) under pressure, amid rising technological, military, and nuclear competition.

Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the global landscape, with profound implications for economic competition, governance, and military might. As global powers race to develop and deploy advanced AI technologies, the stakes extend far beyond innovation; they touch on national security, labor markets, political stability, and the balance of global influence. These shifts are generating both new opportunities and acute risks, particularly in regions grappling with technological dependencies or weak regulatory frameworks.

The panel will explore how AI is reshaping the foundations of global power. It will examine how leading states are leveraging AI in strategic competition, what this means for the future of warfare and surveillance, and how regions such as the Middle East can position themselves in an increasingly automated world. It will also assess the impact of AI on policymaking, labor, military, surveillance, and social contracts in general, all of which raises urgent questions about inclusion, regulation, and resilience.

The Mediterranean has reemerged as a central arena for geopolitical contestation and cooperation. Energy corridors, shifting migration routes, and political realignments have attracted new attention to the region’s strategic importance. As North African states display greater agency, European powers recalibrate their external engagement, and Turkey pursues an increasingly assertive regional role, the Mediterranean is once again a zone where global and regional ambitions collide.

This panel will explore how states across the Mediterranean, from North Africa to southern Europe and Turkey, are navigating evolving dynamics of competition and cooperation. It will consider the political and economic consequences of energy deals, the securitization of migration, and emerging institutional or bilateral arrangements. Panelists will assess what these trends mean for the future of regional integration, fragmentation, and power balancing in the wider Mediterranean space.

As global and regional power dynamics undergo rapid transformation, the international order that once anchored norms of sovereignty, stability, and accountability is showing signs of profound strain. Emerging centers of influence, great-power competition, and weakened multilateral institutions are reshaping how states pursue their interests, justify their actions and grapple with questions of responsibility. These shifts are reverberating across conflict zones and political systems worldwide—but their impact is felt especially acutely in the Middle East. From the devastation in Gaza to Syria’s prolonged cycle of unchecked abuses, many of the region’s gravest injustices have unfolded without accountability—frequently met with international indifference or even complicity.

This fireside chat will address how the fraying global order is influencing the middle east’s conflicts, governance structures, and struggles over justice and responsibility. In particular, the discussion will cover the possibilities that exist in a world marked by competing powers, contested institutions, and unresolved historical grievances for the future of political life, and for the prospects of constructing a more principled international system.

A new regional order appears to be emerging following a two-year (unresolved) war between Israel and Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, which began in October 2023. What has become of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraq’s militias–core actors in this axis? The conflict, which saw an intense Israeli campaign in Gaza and in Lebanon, airstrikes on Yemen, and a subsequent Israeli American campaign on Iran and its nuclear and ballistic programs, tested Tehran’s deterrence network and redrew the map of regional alignments. Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen each became fronts in a broader confrontation that has redefined the balance of power across the Middle East.

The panel will examine how the axis has been altered and how it has adapted politically and militarily since the war, the shifting balance between state and non-state power, and what these developments reveal about regional deterrence, governance, and diplomacy in the aftermath of sustained conflict.