Dear Colleague,

Instability and human suffering have defined the last decade in the Middle East. With ongoing conflict in Gaza and Yemen, and a regime change in Syria, the region will need to come to terms with the current state of play. In this month’s newsletter, the Carnegie Middle East Program and the Malcolm Kerr Center in Beirut explore how regional players particularly in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen are finding their footing. Our scholars unpack the efforts under way to address threats of displacement from Gaza and regional collective security concerns. In addition, scholars consider Saudi Arabia’s development plans, how the kingdom is positioning itself as the dominant regional actor, and Kuwait’s most recent suspension of parliament and what it might mean for the future.

What is the potential for an Arab regional security and dispute resolution mechanism that could stabilize the current situation and help to maintain the peace? In their joint piece, Carnegie senior fellow and Middle East Program director Amr Hamzawy and junior fellow Natalie Triche argue that initiatives are bound to be minimally effective without great power support, especially from the United States. In a separate piece, Hamzawy also considers the outcome of the Arab League’s Palestine Summit and discusses how the region is attempting to balance between the policy and security concerns of Israel and the United States while reaffirming solidarity with Palestine. The Arab Plan is also the subject of Carnegie’s podcast The World Unpacked, in which I discuss Gaza’s Ceasefire in Limbo: U.S. Policy, Regional Plans, and What’s Next.

Along with Gaza, stabilizing Syria is preoccupying the region, particularly Saudi Arabia. Carnegie Beirut nonresident scholar Hesham Alghannam argues that the kingdom must adjust its strategy regarding Damascus to strike the right balance between stabilizing the country on the one hand and countering rising Turkish, Iranian, and Israeli influence on the other.

The deployment of Saudi-backed Salafi forces in the eastern Yemeni governate of Mahra, and Oman-leaning opposition to it, could provoke revival of the Saudi-Omani rivalry in the area which threaten the governorate’s stability and deepen existing political fragmentation, argues Carnegie Beirut nonresident scholar Ibrahim Jalal.

Despite regional instability and points of friction with neighbors, Saudi Arabia remains laser-focused on its future. Its ambitious Vision 2030 which aims to restructure the economy away from oil dependency is in full swing, according to Carnegie nonresident scholar Andrew Leber. However, domestic political sensitivities and constraints resulting from the envisaged major national development projects are forcing the kingdom to find various ways to mitigate opposition.

As regional recalibration continues, we invite you to follow our work and engage with our content. And as always, we welcome and look forward to your feedback.

Sincerely,
Zaha Hassan, Fellow
Middle East Program

Collective Peace

Today’s Middle East: Lessons Learned from Past Attempts at Collective Security

Five twentieth-century Middle Eastern peace settlements point a path forward for Israel, Hamas, and the Houthis.

By Amr Hamzawy and Natalie Triche

Saudi Arabia and the Region

Syria Becomes a Front Line in Protecting Saudi Security

Riyadh is seeking to manage, and often counter, Iranian, Israeli, and Turkish influence in a new Syrian game of nations. Its success will hinge on the ability of the caretaker government to unify a fractured country.

By Hesham Alghannam

Saudi Politics 

Vision 2030 in the Home Stretch: Clear Achievements yet Limited Accountability

Vision 2030 has made undeniable progress in building a Saudi economy that can “live without oil”—but with five years to go, the program is in danger of enriching elites while overlooking the needs of most Saudi citizens.

By Andrew Leber

Conflict in Yemen

The Struggle Over Mahra

The potential for rising tension in the Yemeni governorate worries those on both sides its borders.

By Ibrahim Jalal

Kuwaiti Politics

Will Kuwait’s Parliamentary Democracy Be Restored, Reformed, or Repudiated?

By suspending parliament and sidelining the ruling family, the emir has created a political conundrum for his eventual successor.

By Omar Al Jasser and Nathan J. Brown

Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces

A Turn to Patronage and Protection 

With Iran weakened, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces are adopting a new strategy for survival.

By Harith Hasan, Alfadhel Ahmad

Conflict in Yemen 

Ansar Allah’s Female Enforcers

The Zainabiyyat battalion has been able to access traditionally inaccessible spaces in Yemen.

By Doaa Mohammed

Regional Diplomatic Collaboration

The Arab States’ Remarkable Moves to Push Peace in Gaza

The Palestine Summit was a noteworthy display of political and diplomatic maturity. Now, the Arab countries need to find peace partners in Israel and the United States.

By Amr Hamzawy

Captagon Trafficking in Lebanon

Double Dealers: Lebanon and the Risks of Captagon Trafficking

Lebanon’s financial collapse and the Syrian conflict have allowed for the growth of an illicit economy, giving rise to a new breed of drug traffickers with ties to Lebanese parties and influence in the security forces. To address this, the country must adopt a comprehensive approach.

By Mohanad Hage Ali

U.S.-Lebanon Relations

Washington’s Reckless Abandonment

Recent history illustrates why Lebanese officials are so wary of the United States.

By Michael Young

Events & Media

• Gaza's Ceasefire in Limbo: U.S. Policy, Regional Plans, and What's Next  Listen to the podcast
• Risks and Opportunities for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in the MENA Region  Watch the event
• Closing Civic Space in Lebanon: What Is at Stake?  Watch the event