The transition in Syria, the ceasefire in Gaza, and Lebanon's new government
Before the start of its conflict in 2011, Syria portrayed itself as a secular nationalist state, although one with subnational and supranational identities.
Dear Reader,
Before the start of its conflict in 2011, Syria portrayed itself as a secular nationalist state, although one with subnational and supranational identities. These alternative identities were far from coherent, yet the conditions of the country’s war amplified their significance. Some became cornerstones for organizing social, economic, military, and political life as the conflict undermined the Syrian national framework forged since independence. Locally rooted identities gained prominence in the power vacuum left by a weakened center. Between 2018 and 2024, many believed the regime could subdue these subnational and supranational identities by negotiation, force, or foreign assistance. However, everything changed on December 8, 2024.
As Ahmad al-Sharaa, leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), entered the Umayyad Mosque in triumph, what remained of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime crumbled, while the old national framework collapsed. Assad’s removal was a necessary step for the country to move forward, even if this process was akin to a Rubik’s Cube engulfed in flames.
Leading this daunting effort is HTS and its coalition, a product of the conflict and the most prominent Islamist political project to emerge from it. HTS now faces the immense challenge of reconciling local identities and competing political visions within a national framework that must garner broad acceptance to return stability to Syria. Adding to the difficulty, the new de facto authorities have inherited a tangle of sociopolitical complexities not only from Assad regime but stretching back to the late Ottoman era. The critical question is whether HTS can rise to this monumental task, which, simply put, hinges on three key processes.
At its core, HTS must, first, maintain cohesion within its coalition of Islamist factions, while consolidating its power across Syria’s political heartland, stretching from Idlib to Aleppo to Damascus. In this way, it can establish a sociopolitical, economic, and geographical base from which to expand.
The second dimension involves reclaiming Syria’s border peripheries. This requires a delicate political strategy that could blend compulsion with reconciliation, seeking to build a minimum level of consensus to integrate local dynamics into a broader national framework.
The third dimension is to ensure that this strategy of reclaiming Syria’s peripheries accounts for the significant influence of Syria’s neighbors, whose control and interests cast a long shadow over these borderlands.
These processes must happen in a way that won’t provoke regional powers, ensuring that no actor perceives HTS’s consolidation of power as a potential threat. Syria’s version of a Rubik’s Cube is complex and volatile, where the odds of aligning all, or even most, of the colors while not burning one’s hands are overwhelmingly stacked against the player.
Armenak Tokmajyan
Nonresident Scholar
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Transition in Syria
Bashar al-Assad was long seen as the primary obstacle to a political transition in Syria. With him gone, Syrians now have an opportunity to establish a new national framework for their country’s future.
By Armenak Tokmajyan
Ceasefire in Gaza
The deal is extremely fragile, but there’s some reason for hope.
By Zaha Hassan
Lebanon's Presidency
Joseph Aoun Has Been Elected President of Lebanon
The successes or failures of his presidency will be shaped by his determination to rebuild Lebanon’s institutions and move from factional to nationalist politics, as well as by a broader geopolitical context that is supportive of the program he wants to adopt.
By Maha Yahya
Post Conflict Gaza
“Cleaning Out” Gaza Is in No One’s Interest
Displacing the Palestinian population could bring about a dangerous mix of polarization, mistrust, and regional instability.
By Amr Hamzawy
Assad's Prison System
In an interview, Anne-Marie McManus discusses Syria’s prison system and its importance in the country’s transition.
By Yezid Sayigh
Lebanon's Government
As Lebanon’s designated prime minister forms a cabinet, he should remember that he holds strong cards.
By Michael Young
Egypt's Economy
Aiding and Abetting Egypt’s Behavior
The IMF seems to have abandoned structural reform, adapting to the military’s strategic economic role.
By Yezid Sayigh
In the Media
- Maha Yahya on Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon, Watch the interview
- Marwan Muasher on Trump Administration, Watch the interview
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