The 2013 University Games, now in their second week in Kazan, Tatarstan, right in the center of European Russia, are the first in a series of mega sports events which Russia is hosting this decade. The Winter Olympics in Sochi are just nine months away; and in 2018, it will be the World Soccer Cup. From the Kremlin’s perspective, these events should bring more prestige to Russia and give a boost to international tourism. They also agree with a long-established pattern when development of Russia’s regions away from Moscow is contingent on a presidential visit, an international gathering, or a sports jamboree. That all these development projects benefit hugely those with the best connections goes without saying.
Much fun was made initially of Russia’s bid to hold the Winter Games in a subtropical resort area, but the Sochi Olympics are special in many other ways. First, the North Caucasus where they are to be held has been, since the break-up of the Soviet Union, a seat of violent separatism; then of Islamist extremism; and is still restless. True, Sochi itself was never directly affected, but it is located close to the places which have been. Second, Sochi lies close to Abkhazia, which broke away from Georgia at the time of the Soviet collapse, and whose independence Moscow recognized after the brief war against Tbilisi almost five years ago. Now, the Russo-Georgian relations are on the mend, but the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia prevents their full normalization. Third, Sochi is the favorite residence of President Putin, where he spends much time, holding cabinet meetings and receiving foreign leaders. In a sense, it is Russia’s de-facto southern capital, next to the official seat of power in Moscow and the former imperial capital of St. Petersburg, from which Mr. Putin hails.
Add to the list Russia’s increasingly strained relations with the United States, a palpably cooler atmosphere of EU-Russia relations, and the war in Syria (which is closer to Sochi than Moscow), and it is easy to conclude that the Sochi Olympics are likely to be more politicized than your average recent games. The questions I will be asking this week are:
How does the security environment in the North Caucasus look today, both in general terms and more specifically in its various regions: Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and others; and what are the trends?
What is the connection between the situation in the North Caucasus and the conflicts in the south, namely, in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh? How do the Olympics impact on Russian-Georgian relations?
What are the prospects for Russia’s counter-terrorism cooperation with the United States, in particular in the light of the Boston Marathon bombing?
Finally, how do the Olympics play in the world of Russia’s domestic politics, what are the public attitudes to the Games project and its implementation?
Over to the Eurasia Outlook authors.