Commentary
Leaning into a multispeed Europe that includes the UK is the way Europeans don’t get relegated to suffering what they must, while the mighty United States and China do what they want.
Rym Momtaz
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Source: Getty
In The Media
China Plans Visits to Europe in Times of Uncertainty
The spring of 2019 is riddled with international uncertainties for Europe, the first concerning China.
Published on Feb 12, 2019
Source: Institut Montaigne
This coming spring is riddled with international uncertainties, the first concerning China. Will the 2nd of March deadline for China-US trade talks have a positive outcome, or will the game of trade sanctions keep on escalating? To what extent will China’s slowing economy be under more pressure?
These events will indirectly impact Europe. Mutual US-China trade sanctions have actually improved Europe and other bystanders’ exports in the short term. Paradoxically, a US-China resolution of trade disputes, even if limited and temporary, could turn up the heat on Europe. And in theory at least, China would have more reasons to make concessions – if only transactional, rather than structural – to Europe if it faces increasing difficulties with the United States.
But this may merely be pocket money, compared with the cliffhangers that Europe faces this spring. Come 29 March, and we might be confronted to a hard Brexit. By late May, European elections will form a Parliament that will have to find a majority for a new Commission. As the weeks go by, the present Commission will drift into irrelevance.
This article was originally published by Institut Montaigne.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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