Proliferation News 1/20/26
IN THIS ISSUE: How to Assess Nuclear ‘Threats’ in the Twenty-First Century, Chernobyl nuclear power plant suffers power loss amid Russian attacks, Analysts warn that the Iran crisis carries potential nuclear risks. Here's what to know, Military begins deployment of 'monster' Hyunmoo-5 missile, UK maritime nuclear consortium launched, Fear the Sphere.
How to Assess Nuclear ‘Threats’ in the Twenty-First Century
George Perkovich | Carnegie Endowment
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and then faced a devastating loss around Kherson that September into October, the salience of nuclear risk rose to a level unknown since the Cuban Missile Crisis sixty years earlier. ... Careful analysis shows that Russian leaders between February 2022 and the end of 2024 did not make 135 ‘nuclear threats’ that deserved to be taken seriously ... But, at least once, in late September, through to early October 2022, public and secretly collected evidence indicated that Russian military leaders were setting the stage for possibly detonating non-strategic nuclear weapons to stop Ukrainian advances. This paper and other publications of this project aim to help targets of nuclear manipulations analyse and talk about them so that they can better decide when and how to respond.
Chernobyl nuclear power plant suffers power loss amid Russian attacks
Shubham Kalia | The Independent
Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the site of the world's worst civil nuclear disaster, experienced a complete loss of off-site power on Tuesday morning following extensive military activity, the UN atomic watchdog has confirmed. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that several Ukrainian electrical substations, vital for maintaining nuclear safety, were impacted by the ongoing hostilities.
Analysts warn that the Iran crisis carries potential nuclear risks. Here's what to know
Stephanie Liechtenstein | PBS News
In the wake of spiraling tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehran's violent crackdown on protests, analysts warn that the internal upheaval affecting the Iranian theocracy could carry nuclear proliferation risks. While in recent days U.S. President Donald Trump seemed to have backed away from a military strike on Iran, he called Saturday for an end to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's nearly 40-year reign in Iran. ... [I]n a scenario of internal chaos in Iran, the government could "lose the ability to protect its nuclear assets."
Military begins deployment of 'monster' Hyunmoo-5 missile
Lee Minji | Yonhap News
South Korea's military has begun deploying the high-power Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile, military sources said Sunday, as Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back called for a "balance of terror" to counter North Korea's nuclear threat. The surface-to-surface missile -- dubbed a "monster" because of its size -- is designed to strike underground bunkers and is a key element of South Korea's plan to deter and, if necessary, respond to a major North Korean attack. South Korea has increasingly emphasized conventional strike capabilities as it seeks to strengthen deterrence against North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.
UK maritime nuclear consortium launched
World Nuclear News
Lloyd's Register is leading a new consortium of UK companies seeking "to set the highest international standards for safe, secure and commercially viable nuclear-powered ships". The shipping industry consumes some 350 million tonnes of fossil fuel annually and accounts for about 3% of total worldwide carbon emissions. In July 2023, the shipping industry, via the International Maritime Organization, approved new targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, aiming to reach net-zero emissions by, or around, 2050.
Christopher David LaRoche | Foreign Policy
The United States spent decades condemning spheres of influence as archaic relics of a darker age. Now it’s claiming one. The Trump administration has announced it will “run” Venezuela after capturing President Nicolás Maduro, following up on its pledge to add a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. Unencumbered by international responses that are heavy on rhetoric and light on substance, Washington thus joins the very rivals it once lectured in claiming exclusivity in its own neighborhood. An international order based on spheres of influence may soon sit alongside or, according to some, replace the liberal “rules-based” one.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.