Q&A
Christopher Boucek
{
"authors": [
"Christopher Boucek"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [
"Arab Awakening"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Yemen"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Amid Renewed Violence in Yemen, It's Unclear Who is in Charge
Yemen continues to face political uncertainty and escalating violence, and it remains unclear who is in charge and what steps need to be taken to achieve a stable transition of power.
Published on Sep 19, 2011
Source: Newshour
RAY SUAREZ: For more on the turmoil in Yemen, we turn to Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
These two sides have been in conflict all year. Why this sudden upsurge in violence? Why now?
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK, Middle East Program Associate, Carnegie Endowment For International Peace: Well, I think that's the key question. This has gone on for almost nine months, and it only escalated into serious violence this past weekend.
There have been periodic outbreaks until now. But it wasn't until this weekend when protesters left the area under the protection of General Ali Mohsen, the defected commander of the 1st Armored Division, that triggered this, this most recent round of fighting.
RAY SUAREZ: So they strayed out of an area where it was understood they could normally have their say?
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: Yes.
RAY SUAREZ: And there's also been a counteroffensive. They have fought back against the forces that have been firing on them, to some effect.
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: I think we should be clear to distinguish between the opposition fighting back or the defected military fighting back against the regime security agencies, which is what we really have going on.
The protesters are the ones who are getting killed. They're not doing as much of the fighting.
RAY SUAREZ: For all this -- for all this country's known troubles, has this kind of attack, this level of death been a feature of this conflict over the last nine months.
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: Well, last March, we saw a terrible incident where 52 protesters were killed after Friday prayers. At the end of May, there was a period of pretty intense fighting.
But since the end of May and when President Saleh survived an assassination attempt and went to Saudi Arabia, it had been relatively peaceful. There have been periodic incidents, but nothing of this magnitude. And one of the big concerns is that once violence starts in Yemen, how you de-escalate that. How do you put this back?
And one of the awful things about the situation is that none of the security services or none of the military agencies that are fighting are really geared towards de-escalating conflict.
RAY SUAREZ: If the army opens fire on unarmed civilians, can you assume that that's been cleared at the top?
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: Well, I think it would be -- in an ideal situation, you would like to think that. But the president is out of the country. He's hundreds of miles away. It's unclear who is in charge of things. The president's family -- his son, his nephew is in charge. The military and security services are in charge. The vice president has not been exercising the control that many would like to have seen him exercising.
RAY SUAREZ: So, who is running Yemen?
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: It's the president's family who is still running Yemen. The remnants of the regime are still within the military and the security services. And those are the ones who are doing this. Now, there's no incentive to compromise right now. That's the scary thing.
RAY SUAREZ: Well, no incentive to compromise. As we mentioned in the earlier report, there have been ongoing negotiations about a much talked-about handover of power. Is that not real?
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: I mean, the plan that had been under discussion, the GCC plan, is, for all purposes, dead.
RAY SUAREZ: Gulf Cooperation Council.
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: The idea that the president would step down and there would be a transitional government. And maybe that deal might have had legs six months ago. I don't think it does anymore. It will probably form the basis for whatever it is that comes next. But in its current arrangement, I can't see that being viable.
RAY SUAREZ: But hadn't there been recently encouragement from the E.U., from the United States hoping to nudge the Saleh family along in this very process that you say is now dead?
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: I think they would like to. But I think it's a matter of -- none of the actors -- their interests aren't at -- matching up with what we'd like to see, right?
Until we can figure out a way to re-incentivize all the parties to the conflict, not just the regime, but the other power elites in the country that are fighting, until we figure out a way to re-incentivize them to move towards non-violence, that won't happen.
RAY SUAREZ: Yemen is home to a very dangerous and well-known branch of al-Qaida. Is a more unstable Yemen something much to be feared and worried about here in the United States?
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: Absolutely.
I think that's what's really stymied the policy process, not just in Washington, but, you know, with the Western allies and with the Gulf states. The fact that not knowing what is going to come next and very likely greater instability worries a lot of people. You will give greater space for al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula to plot and plan and mount operations.
RAY SUAREZ: What about the opposition? Is it speaking with one voice? Is there a unified opposition? Or has one of its big weaknesses been that it's a bunch of different groups, not one?
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: No, exactly.
And it seems the only thing they are really agreed upon is that President Saleh has to go. There's no agreement for what comes next. And really there's probably several different layers to what is going on. You have a broad-based popular movement that started this. You have the official opposition, the Joint Meeting Parties and the Islah Party, and a second level of competition.
And then you have this elite rivalry at the top. And all three of these are going on at the same time. All three of them have very different interests in seeing how this works out.
RAY SUAREZ: Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment, thanks for joining us.
CHRISTOPHER BOUCEK: Thank you.
About the Author
Christopher Boucek
Former Associate, Middle East Program
Boucek was an associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focused on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa.
- Yemen After Saleh’s Return and Awlaki’s Exit
- Rivals—Iran vs. Saudi ArabiaQ&A
Christopher Boucek, Karim Sadjadpour
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Russia’s Imperial Retreat Is Europe’s Strategic OpportunityCommentary
The war in Ukraine is costing Russia its leverage overseas. Across the South Caucasus and Middle East, this presents an opportunity for Europe to pick up the pieces and claim its own sphere of influence.
William Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk
- The EU Needs a Third Way in IranCommentary
European reactions to the war in Iran have lost sight of wider political dynamics. The EU must position itself for the next phase of the crisis without giving up on its principles.
Richard Youngs
- Europe on Iran: Gone with the WindCommentary
Europe’s reaction to the war in Iran has been disunited and meek, a far cry from its previously leading role in diplomacy with Tehran. To avoid being condemned to the sidelines while escalation continues, Brussels needs to stand up for international law.
Pierre Vimont
- Can Europe Still Matter in Syria?Commentary
Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.
Bianka Speidl, Hanga Horváth-Sántha
- Europolis, Where Europe EndsCommentary
A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outward. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.
Thomas de Waal
