• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUDemocracy
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Thomas de Waal"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "russia",
  "programs": [
    "Russia and Eurasia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Caucasus",
    "Azerbaijan",
    "Armenia"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie Europe

Smoldering Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Could Re-Erupt

The unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has the potential to flare up again as tensions mount on their interstate border.

Link Copied
By Thomas de Waal
Published on Jun 5, 2012

Source: BBC World News

In an interview with BBC World News, Carnegie’s Thomas de Waal described the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a “smoldering conflict which may one day re-erupt.” Although a ceasefire was declared in 1994, the latest clashes on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan add to the worry that “one day the fuses will blow” and war will once again break out in what is a “very sensitive region,” he noted.

While the three mediators in the peace process—Russia, the United States, and France—are certainly “heavyweight great powers,” they cannot facilitate a settlement as long as both sides are determined to emerge victorious. As a result, “Russia, the United States, and Europe are scratching their heads a bit at the moment as to how to stabilize the situation,” de Waal concluded. 

About the Author

Thomas de Waal

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

    Recent Work

  • Article
    Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia

      Thomas de Waal

Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Thomas de Waal
SecurityCaucasusAzerbaijanArmenia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against Europe

    Mounting economic strain and battlefield losses will not necessarily make the Kremlin less dangerous. They could instead push Moscow toward a more aggressive hybrid campaign designed to test NATO’s Eastern flank, exploit allied hesitation, and fracture European resolve.

      Maksym Beznosiuk

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?

    Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Romania Bulgaria Turkey Black Sea naval
    Commentary
    How NATO Became Anchored in the Black Sea

    As Russia's war on Ukraine drags on, NATO is expanding its footprint in the Black Sea. Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria are upgrading their fleets and deepening trilateral cooperation.

      Dimitar Bechev

  • Turkey ship Istanbul Bosporus Straits Black Sea
    Article
    Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea

    For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Geopolitical Europe Needs Air-Conditioning

    Western Europe’s dual-use infrastructure melted down during its latest heat wave. If a predicted hot weather event can take the continent by surprise, what chance does it have to withstand unexpected geopolitical crises?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.