• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUUkraine
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Judy Dempsey"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Strategic Europe",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "EU Integration and Enlargement"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Europe",
    "Western Europe"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "EU"
  ]
}
Strategic Europe logo

Source: Getty

Commentary
Strategic Europe

The EU’s Loss of Direction

The European Commission’s new white paper on the future of Europe lacks a strategic compass and ambition.

Link Copied
By Judy Dempsey
Published on Mar 2, 2017
Strategic Europe

Blog

Strategic Europe

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers.

Learn More

No matter what Jean-Claude Juncker says or does these days, he will be blamed and he will blame others. The president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive, has in recent months repeatedly criticized the way in which Brussels has become a convenient punching bag for national governments.

He has often decried the way national leaders reach agreements at summits in Brussels only to return to their home countries to denounce interference by bureaucrats in the EU’s capital. It is as if national leaders would rather close their eyes to the need for more Europe, despite crises that include eurozone debt, the influx of refugees, terrorism, and the immense fallout from Britain’s June 2016 vote to leave the EU—capped by the November 2016 election of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Against such an inauspicious background, on March 1 Juncker published his White Paper on the Future of Europe. Subtitled “Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025,” referring to the 27 member states that will remain after Brexit, the paper lists a catalogue of deep, structural problems plaguing the bloc. The population is dwindling. Economic power is waning. Youth unemployment is stubbornly high. Member states are not getting a grip on digitalization, which will affect the nature of work. And the number of citizens who trust the EU is decreasing, down from half of Europeans ten years ago to around one-third today.

These facts are not new. But the commission spelled them out to find ways to deal with such complex trends that affect the EU’s future as a global security and foreign policy player.

Juncker’s proposals, however, aim to please all constituencies throughout the EU’s soon-to-be 27 member states. Instead of embracing the language of Europhiles such as France’s independent presidential contender Emmanuel Macron or Germany’s Social Democratic candidate for chancellor Martin Schulz, Juncker listed five scenarios for the future of the union. Here they are: carrying on as before; focusing only on the EU single market; allowing willing member states to integrate more; doing less but more efficiently; and doing much more together.

Member states will debate this shopping list as part of the white paper process, which will begin later in March when the EU celebrates its sixtieth anniversary in Rome and will continue through to the European Parliament elections in June 2019. Nothing like having the luxury of time as the rest of the world moves on.

The scenarios reveal two major weaknesses of the European Commission. The first is that the commission has lost all authority and ambition in setting out how it sees the EU’s future. It seems that Juncker’s team didn’t dare state which direction the union should take. In short, the commission has lost the real sense of conviction that made it such a driving force of integration under Jacques Delors’s presidency from 1985 to 1994.

Second, the five scenarios show a complete lack of strategy for the EU. Europe does not need shopping lists or à la carte menus. There are enough opt-out clauses for member states as it is. Offering more options amounts to diluting, not strengthening, the EU.

Juncker and his team had to take into account the growing distrust of national and EU-level institutions as well as the rise of Euroskeptic and populist movements. But the white paper’s major mistake is that it panders to all the different views. The commission no longer seems to know what it stands for. It sees how the member states’ parliaments and lobbies are gnawing away at its powers, especially on trade. Yet it has been too slow to defend those powers, which have given the EU substantial economic clout and influence.

Not everything can be blamed on bureaucratic inertia in Brussels, powerful lobbies, and obstinate national leaders who prefer to pursue their own agendas. Nevertheless, the sign-off sentence to the white paper’s introduction, after it lists a catalogue of woes affecting Europe, encapsulates a combination of wish fulfillment and misplaced nostalgia. Europe, it stated, “has always been at a crossroads and has always adapted and evolved.” Were it as simple as that.

About the Author

Judy Dempsey

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Dempsey is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    Europe Needs to Hear What America is Saying

      Judy Dempsey

  • Commentary
    Babiš’s Victory in Czechia Is Not a Turning Point for European Populists

      Judy Dempsey

Judy Dempsey
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Judy Dempsey
EUEuropeWestern Europe

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Strategic Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The Fog of AI War

    In Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran, AI warfare has come to dominate, with barely any oversight or accountability. Europe must lead the charge on the responsible use of new military technologies.

      Raluca Csernatoni

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    How to Join the EU in Three Easy Steps

    Montenegro and Albania are frontrunners for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, but they can’t just sit back and wait. To meet their 2030 accession ambitions, they must make a strong positive case.

      Dimitar Bechev, Iliriana Gjoni

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Can NATO Survive the Iran War?

    Donald Trump has repeatedly bashed NATO and European allies, threatening to annex Canada and Greenland and deploring their lack of enthusiasm for his war of choice in Iran. Is this latest round of abuse the final straw?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    On NATO, Trump Should Embrace France Instead of Bashing It

    Donald Trump’s repudiation of NATO goes against the Make America Great Again vision of a U.S.-centered foreign policy. If the goal is to preserve the alliance by boosting Europe’s commitments, leaning into France’s vision is the most America First way forward.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Win or Lose, Orbán Has Broken Hungary’s Democracy

    Hungarians head to the polls on April 12 for an election of national and European consequence. Three different outcomes are on the cards, each with their own implications for the EU.

      Zsuzsanna Szelényi

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.