What Do All the Polls Mean?
Although the various polls predicting the outcome of the UK elections may differ, their multiplicity helps to identify trends.
experts
Peter Kellner
Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Europe
about
Peter Kellner is a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on Brexit, populism, and electoral democracy.
Prior to joining Carnegie, Kellner was president of the online survey research company, YouGov, from 2007 to 2016, after serving as the organization’s chairman from 2001 to 2007. Previously, he consulted on public opinion research to a number of organizations, including the Bank of England, the Corporation of London, the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the National Westminster Bank, and the Trades Union Congress.
Kellner has worked extensively as a British journalist. He has written for a variety of newspapers and magazines, including the Times, the Independent, the Observer, and the Evening Standard, and has been a regular contributor to television and radio programs, such as BBC Newsnight and Channel Four’s A Week in Politics. He was awarded Journalist of the Year at the British Press Awards in 1978.
He has been a visiting fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford; a distinguished visiting fellow at the Policy Studies Institute, London; and served as a member of committees set up by the Economic and Social Research Council to commission research into elections and social exclusion. He received a Special Recognition Award from the Political Studies Association in 2011.
Kellner is currently the chairman of the National Council for Voluntary Service (NCVO) and a trustee of UpRising, a charity that mentors young people.
areas of expertise
education
MA, Economics, King’s College, University of Cambridgelanguages
EnglishAll work from Peter Kellner
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109 Results
Brexit Has Fundamentally Damaged the Tories
Voters who supported the Conservatives in 2019 have since lost faith in the party, its competence, and its values.
How Likely is a Tory Wipeout?
There is no indication that the Conservatives are rebuilding their core support, which means that a swing of votes toward Labour is likely to happen.
Can the Tories Close a 16-point Polling Gap?
While polls show a Labour's party lead over the Conservatives, the past has proven that polling averages are not infallible.
The UK Braces for a Change of Direction
Britain’s Labour party looks set to win July’s general election. In recalibrating the country’s foreign policy, Keir Starmer’s government intends to work more closely with the EU while tackling global challenges.
· May 28, 2024
Is Sunak the New Corbyn? This Election Will Show Us
Polls reveal a limited enthusiasm for Starmer’s Labour party but a clear eagerness for the Conservatives' downfall.
Sunak Is in Farage’s Pocket
Without Nigel Farage’s leadership, Reform UK has struggled to make an impact in the British political landscape. His potential return to the helm of the party could threaten Conservatives’ seats in the upcoming election.
Britain’s Two Main Parties Are Trapped
Once an important bridge between the EU and the United States, the UK today has waning global influence and a weakening economy. Britons fear that the next election will make little difference.
· September 29, 2023
Anti-Brexit Britain Has Reached the Point of Return
Seven years after the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, polls show a change in mood owing to economic, political, and demographic reasons. But negotiations to rejoin the EU would be tough and lengthy.
· June 21, 2023
The Swing Voters Who’ll Decide The Next Election
The UK local elections are the most significant indicator of public opinion ahead of the next general election. The results will show the level of approval toward the Conservative and Labour parties.
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