Authoritarian military politics in North Africa will be shaped by relations between the military and the head of state, dynamics within the coercive sector, marginalization of the private sector, and the ability of state actors to leverage foreign support.
As Egypt and Ethiopia negotiate the details of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, tensions are on the rise. Sudan, which has vested interest in the dam, too, could be an essential third party to smooth over the disputes.
Along the Egypt-Sudan border, tensions have been rising for several decades despite limited efforts at cooperation. Both countries need to reexamine their border policies to prevent further escalation.
Frederic Wehrey is a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research deals with armed conflict, security sectors, and identity politics, with a focus on Libya, North Africa, and the Gulf.
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