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The proliferation of new technologies threatens to increase the risks of nuclear use. Join us to discuss two of those risks—precision-strike weapons in the hands of U.S. allies and artificial intelligence—explored in recent studies funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
9:30 to 10:45 a.m.
Conventional Precision-Strike Weapons and Non-Nuclear States
How could the military capabilities of non-nuclear states allied to a nuclear power affect the risks of escalation? Several U.S. allies and partners in Europe and Asia are pursuing precise long-range strike weapons and acquiring their own intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. We discuss the state of play, some of the reasons behind this trend, and its implications for crisis and conflict situations.
Tom Plant, Joshua Pollack, Caitlin Talmadge, Samuel Charap
10:45 to 11:00 a.m.
11:00 a.m. to 12:15 p.m.
Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Stability, and Nuclear Risk
Breakthroughs in machine learning and new approaches to AI engineering have enabled the development of increasingly capable AI-enabled and autonomous military systems. We will explore why and how machine learning and autonomy might become the focus of an arms race among nuclear-armed states.
Lora Saalman, Petr Topychkanov, Lindsey Sheppard, Toby Dalton
Tom Plant is director of the Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Program at the Royal United Services Institute.
Joshua Pollack is editor of the Nonproliferation Review and senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
Caitlin Talmadge is associate professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.
Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.
Lora Saalman is associate senior fellow for the Armament and Disarmament and Conflict and Peace Programs at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and senior fellow at the Global Cooperation in Cyberspace Program at EastWest Institute.
Petr Topychkanov is a senior researcher in the Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control, and Non-proliferation Program at Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Lindsey Sheppard is an associate fellow in the International Security Program at Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Toby Dalton is the co-director and a senior fellow of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment.