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Revamping Nuclear Arms Control: Five Near-Term Proposals

IN THIS ISSUE: Revamping Nuclear Arms Control: Five Near-Term Proposals, Iran Says it Would Rejoin Nuclear Deal Within an Hour of US Doing So, Russian Nuclear Submarine Test-Fires 4 Missiles, HASC Chair Smith Calls For New National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Policy Review, Sizewell C: Government Reignites £20bn Nuclear Power Station Row, U.S. Geopolitics and Nuclear Deterrence in the Era of Great Power Competitions

Published on December 15, 2020

Revamping Nuclear Arms Control: Five Near-Term Proposals

James M. Acton, Thomas MacDonald, and Pranay Vaddi | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

In January 2020, the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace initiated a new project to define a more promising future for arms control. We aim to mitigate acute nuclear risks by developing practical, concrete, and innovative ideas for interstate cooperation. In particular, we seek to catalyze the restart of U.S.-Russian risk-reduction efforts and to productively engage third parties, especially China. This interim progress report lays out five near-term proposals. As a next step, we invite feedback from officials and experts in China, Russia, and the United States and its allies, as well as from all other states—after all, because the consequences of a U.S.-Chinese or a U.S.-Russian nuclear war would be global, every state has an interest in reducing its likelihood. After revising the proposals based on this feedback, we will publish them—along with more ambitious longer-term proposals—in late 2021.

Iran Says it Would Rejoin Nuclear Deal Within an Hour of US Doing So

Patrick Wintour | Guardian

Iran would return to compliance with the nuclear deal within an hour of the US doing so, its president said – but he faced further pressure from the outgoing Trump administration after it sanctioned two Iranian officials over their alleged involvement in the abduction of a former FBI agent. Hassan Rouhani also made clear he was not prepared to discuss any changes to the deal, or any constraints on Iran’s ballistic missile programme. His remarks on Monday, underlining his determination to lift crippling US sanctions, came ahead of a meeting on Wednesday of the joint commission, the body that brings together the current signatories to the nuclear deal.

Russian Nuclear Submarine Test-Fires 4 Missiles

Vladimir Isachenkov | AP 

A Russian nuclear submarine on Saturday successfully test-fired four intercontinental ballistic missiles in a show of readiness of Moscow’s nuclear forces amid tension with the U.S. The Defense Ministry said that the Vladimir Monomakh submarine of the Pacific Fleet launched four Bulava missiles in quick succession from an underwater position in the Sea of Okhotsk. Their dummy warheads hit their designated targets on the Chiza shooting range in the Arkhangelsk region in northwestern Russia more than 5,500 kilometers (over 3,400 miles) away, the ministry said in a statement.

HASC Chair Smith Calls For New National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Policy Review

John Grady | USNI News

The House Armed Service Committee chairman’s advice to the incoming Biden administration is to put together a National Defense Strategy in its first six to nine months in office that will provide direction for further review of nuclear policy and budget-building. As part of that strategy, “I think we should have a no-first-use policy” because “nuclear weapons are a special case.” They are “weapons that could destroy the planet.” Rep. Adam Smith, (D-Wash.) said while speaking at a Center for Strategic and International Studies online forum Friday said he also wants the United States to maintain “robust deterrence” but delivered with “a more cost-effective approach.” Smith recognized the strong opposition he has from progressives in the Democratic Party and also among some Republicans to spending on military projects, modernization, basing and operations.

Sizewell C: Government Reignites £20bn Nuclear Power Station Row

Jillian Ambrose | Guardian

The government has reignited a row over Britain’s nuclear energy ambitions by agreeing to restart talks with EDF over plans to build a reactor at Sizewell C in Suffolk. The talks could lead to the government taking a direct financial stake in the project before the end of the current parliamentary term in 2024, and using a new financial model that would make the public liable for cost overruns. The formal negotiations over the £20bn nuclear plant will hinge on whether the French state-owned EDF can prove it has learned lessons from its Hinkley Point nuclear project in Somerset, and that a successor plant would offer the public value for money.

U.S. Geopolitics and Nuclear Deterrence in the Era of Great Power Competitions

Peter Rudolf | Political Science Quarterly

A new era has begun in world politics. This, at least, is the assumption that has taken shape in the U.S. discourse over the past few years and found its way into the National Security Strategy under President Donald Trump. The United States as the leading great power sees itself challenged by Russia and China. Both states are perceived as “revisionist” powers, seeking to change the international order in their favor and claiming spheres of influence. This runs counter to the traditional geopolitical core interest of the United States: to prevent one or more hostile great powers from gaining control of Eurasiaʼs resources.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.