November 2024
Dear friends,
This month has shaped up to be quite momentous for the Africa Program and the world at-large. Donald Trump has been re-elected with a decisive majority of both the electoral and popular votes. The Republican Party also secured a majority of seats in both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. With these results in both the executive and legislative branches, Trump will have a wide latitude to implement a far-reaching domestic and foreign policy agenda, with profound impacts on U.S.-Africa relations. I did a series of interviews on what another Trump presidency could really mean for Africa and U.S.-Africa relations with France24, Al Jazeera, and Foreign Policy.
What will the incoming administration’s approach to Africa look like? We don’t know yet, and consequently, the Africa Program hosted a panel discussion on November 19 on “What Comes Next: Insights into the Future of U.S.-Africa Relations Under a New Trump Administration.” This event featured former senior officials from Trump’s first term to share insights on how the impending political transition in the White House and the U.S. Congress will affect U.S. engagement towards Africa given the policy agenda of the first Trump administration. The panelists included Frank Fannon, former Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, Tibor Nagy, former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Affairs, and Ramsey Day, nonresident scholar with the Carnegie Africa Program and former assistant administrator of the Bureau for Africa at the United States Agency for International Development. It is also the precursor to the release of our 2024 Compendium: “Priorities for the Next U.S. Administration in Strengthening the U.S. Economic Relationship with Africa.” The compendium aims to provide the incoming administration with digestible, fact-based, and policy-relevant recommendations to strengthen the U.S.-Africa economic relationship.
As the incoming administration assembles its teams and personnel and lays out its policy agenda, trade is clearly a top priority. Trump’s campaign pledge to implement a universal 10-20% income tariff on all imports, could be consequential for the African continent. Specifically, the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—a program that gives exports from more than thirty African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market—which is set to expire in September 2025 is even more uncertain. Would beneficiaries of such trade preference programs—be it AGOA or the Caribbean Basin Initiative—be exempt from such sweeping tariffs? Would AGOA, like the Generalized System of Preferences which expired in 2020, end up in limbo from 2025?
Such questions around trade will definitely keep us busy in the Africa Program in the coming months. Be on the lookout for our publications and policy dialogues on Africa’s global trade relations. Which is why we are thrilled to announce the addition of our new nonresident scholar, Kholofelo Kugler! Ms. Kugler is an experienced international trade lawyer and specialist on African trade issues, who is completing her PhD at the University of Lucerne in Switzerland. She currently acts as Counsel at the Advisory Centre on World Trade Organization (WTO) Law in Geneva, Switzerland where she litigates and provides legal advice and training on WTO law. Her work with the Carnegie Africa Program will focus on Africa’s global trade relationships (with China, the EU, the United States, and other partners) and African regional integration.
Beyond Washington, D.C., could there be other arenas of bilateral economic relationships between the U.S. and African countries? In our chart of the month below, Alexander Csanadi locates sister city programs between the United States and Africa to explore how leveraging those existing frameworks can boost economic and technological cooperation with relevant African partners. Read the analysis, “Realizing the International Potential of the CHIPS and Science Act’s Technology Hubs” here.
In other news, the UN COP29 just ended in Baku, Azerbaijan. Many of the large promises made before the summit fell flat during negotiations. The new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for climate financing was set at $300 billion annually from mostly middle and high-income countries. Although this number triples the NCQG pledge made in 2009, many climate experts argue the number does not come close to the $1 trillion needed per annum, as recommended by Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance (IHLEG), for climate adaptation and investments in low-carbon technologies in the Global South.
On December 4, we will have an event to launch our Africa Technology Policy Tracker (AfTech). Work on this database was led by the Africa Program under Fellow Jane Munga in collaboration with the Africa Telecommunications Union (ATU). As the first-ever continent-wide aggregate of digital economy laws, policies, and regulations, AfTech offers a comprehensive, interactive website that serves as a central repository to gain insights into how African countries are governing their digital economies. The launch event will bring together tech policy scholars, tech industry leaders, and members of the African diplomatic corps to discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with the evolving digital governance landscape. You can register to attend the event in-person or virtually here.
We look forward to sharing both the 2024 Compendium and the AfTech Tracker with our global policy community. To stay up to date on all our publications and programming, be sure to subscribe to our newsletter, follow us on LinkedIn, and follow us on X (formerly Twitter) at @AfricaCarnegie.
Sincerely,
Zainab Usman
Director, Carnegie Africa Program
Chart of the Month
Even though sister city programs often center around facilitating cultural ties, interested cities can leverage the framework to scale up economic and technological cooperation with relevant African partners.
Features
FOCAC
China’s domestic situation and its engagement with Africa indicate a drastic shift in China’s checkbook diplomacy approach.
By Christian-Géraud Neema
AFRICAN POLITICS
Botswana has a new boss in President Duma Boko after an election victory over a party that has been in power since independence fifty-eight years ago. A lot is set to change, including the country’s relations with South Africa and Zimbabwe.
By Anthony Carroll, Daily Maverick
U.S. ELECTION
Zainab Usman discusses the kind of U.S.-Africa relationship that could be expected with the return of Donald Trump to the presidency.
By Zainab Usman, France24
INVESTMENTS
As Western nations slash aid to developing countries from their budgets, China is reaffirming its commitment to development financing in Africa.
By Zainab Usman and Tani Washington
U.S. ELECTION
On the heels of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Zainab Usman speaks with Al Jazeera to discuss the the implications of the political transition in the White House on U.S.-Africa relations.
By Zainab Usman, Al Jazeera
TECHNOLOGY
Beyond their domestic potential, these hubs could feature prominently in U.S. economic relations with the African continent and the rest of the world.
By Alexander Csanadi
U.S. ELECTION
This conversation discusses the implications of the U.S. presidential election for America’s engagement, particularly its trade and commercial diplomacy, with Africa.
By Zainab Usman, Foreign Policy
Developments On Our Radar
- At COP29, Africa bets on $1.3trn in demand for climate justice [Zawya]
- Gold, prices, and jobs: What's at stake in Ghana's elections? [BBC]
- Biden to Visit Angola in December, Fulfilling Vow to Visit Africa [Bloomberg]
- Can SADC resolve the political crisis in Mozambique? [Deutsche Welle]
- Top 10 African countries with the greatest improvement in visa friendliness from 2016 to 2024 [Business Insider]
Professional Development Opportunities
- Boston University: Global China Fellows Program [application]
- Mo Ibrahim Foundation 2025 Fellowship [application]
- SOAS Future Leaders Programme 7: African Economic Development, Producing Real Change [application]
- Princeton Postdoctoral Research Associate: National Climate Governance and Institutions [application]
- 2025-2026 Obama Leaders Program [application]
- Carnegie Endowment: Research Scholar, Technology and International Affairs [application]