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Debating NATO Enlargement

Two scholars debate the wisdom of enlarging NATO after the Cold War, the extent to which Western policy played a role in bringing about Russia’s war in Ukraine, and how the United States should pursue its interests in Europe going forward.

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As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, the United States is grappling with how to sustain Kyiv and eventually re-establish security in Europe. Should Ukraine join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? To what extent has enlarging NATO promoted or damaged U.S. interests since the Cold War ended? Should the United States double down on its commitment to European security and provide more forces to face down a hostile and aggressive Russia? Or should it instead seek ways to bring the temperature down while shifting European defense burdens to its allies?

Carnegie’s American Statecraft Program invited James Goldgeier and Joshua Shifrinson, two leading scholars of NATO enlargement, to discuss and debate these timely questions in a twenty-first-century exchange of letters. The two have worked together extensively but disagree about the central questions of U.S. security policy toward post–Cold War Europe. Jim has typically supported the enlargement of NATO, whereas Josh regards the alliance’s expansion as a strategic mistake. This format aims to facilitate direct, public dialogue and reflective argumentation, encouraging the participants to delve into the assumptions that lie behind their positions and identify what kind of empirical evidence could resolve parts of the debate.

Now that the NATO summit in Vilnius has concluded, Jim begins the exchange by arguing that Ukraine should be welcomed into NATO once the current war ends. He and Josh will continue the exchange over the coming days and weeks, so check back here as the story unfolds.

Jim and Josh, take it away!

—Stephen Wertheim

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More From the American Statecraft Program

There is an urgent need for a more disciplined U.S. foreign policy that is clear-eyed about a more competitive world, realistic about the limits of American power, and aligned with domestic renewal. The Carnegie American Statecraft Program examines America’s role in the world and recommends policy ideas to help meet this need.

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