The Debate on “Sequencing”

{
  "authors": [
    "Thomas Carothers"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Democracy and Governance"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "democracy",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "DCG",
  "programs": [
    "Democracy, Conflict, and Governance",
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "Middle East",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Democracy",
    "Security",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

Other

The Debate on “Sequencing”

By Thomas Carothers

Published on Jul 17, 2007

Source: Journal of Democracy

The July 2007 issue of Journal of Democracy showcases a debate on Thomas Carothers’ “The ‘Sequencing’ Fallacy” featuring Edward Mansfield, Jack Snyder, Francis Fukuyama, Sheri Berman, and Carothers. Mansfield and Snyder reassert their view that rapid democratization can be a dangerous recipe for civil or interstate violence. Carothers responds by explaining that Mansfield and Snyder mischaracterize his analysis while failing to address his central assertions: authoritarianism is inherently at odds with democratic state-building and gradually introducing democratic reforms shows greater promise than putting off democracy indefinitely. Fukuyama highlights the tension between violent state-building and the creation of liberal institutions. Rejecting the notion that democratization must follow any particular sequence, Berman emphasizes that today’s successful democracies each followed a unique –and often tumultuous– path.

Click on PDF icon above to read full debate.

About the Author

Thomas Carothers

Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Thomas Carothers, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, is a leading expert on comparative democratization and international support for democracy.

Recent Work

Paper
The Effects of U.S. Democratic Backsliding on U.S. Power
- Thomas Carothers
Paper
Post-U.S. International Democracy Support: Aspiration in Search of Substance
- Richard Youngs, Thomas Carothers

Political Reform Democracy Security Foreign Policy North America Middle East China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Europe

Commentary
Strategic Europe
Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?
Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
Report
Europe from Scratch: Visions for a New European Order
As the EU confronts profound challenges, several leaders have called for fundamental reform to the union’s model—but only modest, superficial changes have resulted. What if Europe really could be reimagined from zero today: What should such a redesigned European order look like?
Richard Youngs, ed.
Commentary
Strategic Europe
European Sycophancy Worked on Trump
Nearly a year and a half after Europeans leaned into sucking up to Trump, the strategy has produced some benefits when it comes to Ukraine.
Rym Momtaz
Commentary
How NATO Became Anchored in the Black Sea
As Russia's war on Ukraine drags on, NATO is expanding its footprint in the Black Sea. Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria are upgrading their fleets and deepening trilateral cooperation.
Dimitar Bechev
Commentary
Strategic Europe
The Le Pen Verdict: How French Politics Turned MAGA
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen can—and will—run in France’s next presidential election. What does the outcome of her appeal against a 2025 embezzlement conviction mean for the country’s political future?
Catherine Fieschi

The Debate on “Sequencing”

More Work from Carnegie Europe

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?

Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?

Rym Momtaz, ed.

Report

Europe from Scratch: Visions for a New European Order

As the EU confronts profound challenges, several leaders have called for fundamental reform to the union’s model—but only modest, superficial changes have resulted. What if Europe really could be reimagined from zero today: What should such a redesigned European order look like?

Richard Youngs, ed.

Commentary

Strategic Europe

European Sycophancy Worked on Trump

Nearly a year and a half after Europeans leaned into sucking up to Trump, the strategy has produced some benefits when it comes to Ukraine.

Rym Momtaz

Commentary

How NATO Became Anchored in the Black Sea

As Russia's war on Ukraine drags on, NATO is expanding its footprint in the Black Sea. Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria are upgrading their fleets and deepening trilateral cooperation.

Dimitar Bechev

Commentary

Strategic Europe

The Le Pen Verdict: How French Politics Turned MAGA

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen can—and will—run in France’s next presidential election. What does the outcome of her appeal against a 2025 embezzlement conviction mean for the country’s political future?

Catherine Fieschi