Article
Thomas de Waal
{
"authors": [
"Thomas de Waal"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Russia",
"Georgia"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Sochi and Georgia: A Missed Opportunity
The Sochi Olympics could become the pretext for a real rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi. However, conversation between Russia and Georgia about the insurgency in the North Caucasus never started, and in the future this will be remembered as a missed opportunity.
Published on Feb 5, 2014
Russia was lucky with the timing. If the vote on the venue of the Winter Olympics had been held in the summer of 2008, rather than a year earlier, the International Olympic Committee would surely not have awarded the 2014 games to a city located right next to a conflict zone.
Since Sochi won the right to host the Olympics in 2007, the region next door has been through war, Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states and a partial thaw caused by the election of the Georgian Dream government in October 2012.
Had Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement won the election in 2012, it is likely that Georgia would have boycotted Sochi and relations between Moscow and Tbilisi would have deteriorated even further.
Instead, for a moment in 2012, it looked as though the Sochi games could become the "peace games," the pretext for a real rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi. The new Georgian government announced it would not be boycotting the games. It quietly dropped its politicization of the Circassian issue. The Foreign Minister Maia Panjikidze mused aloud to me that it would be wonderful if she could get in her car and drive across Abkhazia to Sochi.
It was not to be. The Russian-Georgian dialogue established in 2012 has succeeded in restoring trade relations. The Georgian economy has received a boost from getting its wine and agricultural products back on the Russian market. The two sides are discussing visa liberalization.
Georgia is sending four competitors to Sochi and a small delegation from its Olympic Committee. Flights between Tbilisi and Sochi will operate for the duration of the games. The most recent opinion poll says that 66 percent of Georgians approve of their country participating in the games and only 17 percent disapprove.
But one important conversation never started—the one in which Russia and Georgia talk about the never-ending insurgency in the North Caucasus and what the Georgians can do about it. That would have been good for both security and politics. Instead, the Russian government's approach to securing the games has been "Don't talk to the Neighbors." Moscow has actually tightened the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the past year.
In the future this will surely be remembered as a missed opportunity.
About the Author
Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
- Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea
- There Is No Shortcut for Europe in ArmeniaCommentary
Thomas de Waal
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy NowCommentary
Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.
Alissa de Carbonnel
- Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against EuropeCommentary
Mounting economic strain and battlefield losses will not necessarily make the Kremlin less dangerous. They could instead push Moscow toward a more aggressive hybrid campaign designed to test NATO’s Eastern flank, exploit allied hesitation, and fracture European resolve.
Maksym Beznosiuk
- Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?Commentary
Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- European Sycophancy Worked on TrumpCommentary
Nearly a year and a half after Europeans leaned into sucking up to Trump, the strategy has produced some benefits when it comes to Ukraine.
Rym Momtaz
- How NATO Became Anchored in the Black SeaCommentary
As Russia's war on Ukraine drags on, NATO is expanding its footprint in the Black Sea. Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria are upgrading their fleets and deepening trilateral cooperation.
Dimitar Bechev
