Commentary
The war in Ukraine is costing Russia its leverage overseas. Across the South Caucasus and Middle East, this presents an opportunity for Europe to pick up the pieces and claim its own sphere of influence.
William Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk
Source: Getty
Hope in the Levant
The simultaneous announcement of an agreement between government and opposition in Lebanon and of the start of indirect talks between Israel and Syria in Turkey might be the best news to come out of that troubled region for a long time. While the United States favored neither position, these two developments may have a positive influence on the region.
Published on May 27, 2008
The simultaneous announcement of an agreement between government and opposition in Lebanon and of the start of indirect talks between Israel and Syria in Turkey might be the best news to come out of that troubled region for a long time. And while the United States favored neither the compromise over Lebanon that strengthens the position of Hizbollah nor the talks between Syria and Israel, these two developments may have a positive influence on stability in the region and on the Palestinian–Israeli peace process the Bush administration wants to succeed.
The package deal on Lebanon negotiated with the help of Qatar and the Arab League is to an extent a victory for Hizbollah, giving the Hizbollah-led opposition 11 portfolios in the 30-member government of national unity, thus the power to block major decisions. The March 14 coalition that controls the government now will name 16 ministers and the president three. Hizbollah and the government have also agreed on the immediate election of army chief Michel Suleiman as president, a return to the 1960 election law for the 2009 parliamentary election, and the renunciation by all sides of the use of weapons in internal conflicts. The agreement leaves intact Hizbollah’s militia as an “instrument of resistance against Israel,” though. While Hizbollah got what it wanted in the negotiations, Lebanon as a whole will also reap some benefits from the agreement. Lebanon will have a government, Hizbollah’s tent city that paralyzed the center of town was removed as soon as the agreement was announced, and the population will hopefully return to normal life. The slide into civil war that recently loomed as a distinct possibility has been halted.
About the Authors
Paul Salem
Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute
Paul Salem is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Marina Ottaway
Former Senior Associate, Middle East Program
Before joining the Endowment, Ottaway carried out research in Africa and in the Middle East for many years and taught at the University of Addis Ababa, the University of Zambia, the American University in Cairo, and the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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