Judy Asks: Who Led Europe in 2014?

My award for “European Person of the Year 2014” goes to Magnus Carlsen, the Norwegian chess grand master who recently achieved the highest-ever world ranking for a player. But in the category of “Person Who Led Europe in 2014,” my winner is German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Carlsen is twenty-four years old and personifies youthful energy—something that Europe desperately needs. He plays strategically and thinks well ahead—again, traits that European leaders ought to aspire to. Finally, he dominates a field—iconoclastic intellectual prowess—that was Europeans’ strong suit from the Renaissance through the Enlightenment to the Industrial Revolution.

Merkel was the go-to European leader that Cameron, Hollande, and Renzi were not.

 

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Merkel was the go-to European leader that British Prime Minister David Cameron, French President François Hollande, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi simply were not when the ongoing euro crisis or the Russia-Ukraine conflict required critical decisionmaking. Merkel supported the growth- and reform-friendly policies pursued in weaker parts of the EU over Brussels-centered orthodoxy.

Merkel also showed convincing leadership when, following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, she played up Germany’s military commitment toward the Baltics and Poland within NATO. Further, she brought over to her side some Southern Europeans who had been equivocating over harsh economic sanctions against Russia.

Carlsen and Merkel, each in their unique ways, showed grit, perseverance, and vision to earn their 2014 awards.

Angela Merkel, obviously.

After dominating the management of Europe’s economic crisis, in 2014 the German chancellor also assumed the lead in geopolitics. With many meetings and phone calls with Vladimir Putin and a lot of internal pushing and pulling, she ensured a mostly coherent EU response to Russia’s challenge in Eastern Europe.

Henry Kissinger’s question about the EU’s phone number—“Who do I call if I want to speak to Europe?”—has finally been answered. The U.S. National Security Agency figured this out some time ago.

#Merkel is a kind of European Sisyphus.

 

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However, Merkel is a kind of European Sisyphus. She has neither the vision nor the necessary partners in other EU capitals to achieve lasting solutions. So she remains constantly on the defensive. After each temporary respite the economic and political problems grow again and the “EU rock” starts rolling back down the hill.

In the short term, this might make the EU even more dependent on Merkel, as there is no one who can replace her in preventing disaster. But in the longer term, her strength and political capital become depleted. Therefore, Berlin’s role as the EU’s benign hegemon might last even less time than Washington’s unipolar moment in the 1990s.

Well actually Judy, it was me who was in charge this year. And here’s how it happened: back in the 1980s, at around the time that I was being born, the EU started to transform itself into a knowledge-based economy. Faced with falling trade barriers and growing communication links, this transformation kept high-wage jobs in Europe. It also revitalized our democracy as new modes of communication made politics more responsive, collaborative, and based on practical experience.

There have been a few naysayers, natch: the knowledge-based economy certainly picked some low-hanging fruit in the services sector, but it passed over the really knowledge-intensive task of modernizing Europe’s industries and peripheries. And the part about opening up politics? Turns out only PR gurus, pirates, and policy wonks benefited.

It was me who was in charge of Europe in 2014.

 

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Still, all this has put me (and the best-educated 20%) in charge here. And the results are pretty rosy. My leadership style is enlightened populism, and I spend my time trying to guess what the hell it is that normal people want when it comes to issues like immigration and the EU. The autocracies of China and Russia have nothing on me. All the same, a resolution for 2015: must try to get out more.

I’m afraid there is a typo in this week’s question. So I’m going to correct it. The real question is: Who misled Europe in 2014?

The usual suspects are former European Commission president José Manuel Barroso, former EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, French President François Hollande, British Prime Minster David Cameron, former European Council president Herman Van Rompuy, or European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

But I nominate German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Despite being brave and bold enough to slap Russian President Vladimir Putin with stiff sanctions to punish him after his Crimean escapade, Merkel did not lead her country and the continent with a real, clear strategy.

#Merkel did not lead her country and the continent with a real, clear strategy.

 

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True, she had to contend with her rambunctious voters missing the good old deutsche mark, her entrepreneurs missing cozy Russian contracts, and the U.S. National Security Agency tapping her own cell phone. Yet she didn’t read Financial Times journalist Martin Wolf’s opus The Shifts and the Shocks. If she had, she would know that Europe cannot afford to be a continent of net exporters, and that Germany’s model will not work all over the EU. Stern Teutonic austerity will eventually doom the old continent, including Berlin.

So while Merkel is by far the best, most serious, bravest, and most dedicated leader Europe has today, her stamina and vision were not up to the task in 2014. I wish her luck in 2015, because only Angela Merkel and Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, can avert the next euro catastrophe.

Geopolitically speaking, Europe was led in different ways in 2014 by the three Baltic states, Germany, and the United Kingdom—with support from the United States. These six countries provided the surge of energy for the EU’s assertiveness and NATO’s regeneration after the Russian annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine.

In 2014, Europe was led by the 3 Baltic States, #Germany and the #UK.

 

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The Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—carefully reminded everyone that Russia under President Vladimir Putin is not, and will likely never be, friendly toward Western values or interests. That is not least because Russia is seeking to deny the Western powers access to a region it considers its own.

Germany realized that “neo-Ostpolitik”—as its policy toward Moscow has been called—is not working: engaging Putin is like talking to a brick wall. In no small part due to the good senses of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Berlin finally stepped back from its “accommodationist” approach, even if other political constituencies in Germany remain nervous of a more robust containment of Russian power.

And the UK, in conjunction with the United States and aided by the Baltic states, Poland, Norway, and Denmark, provided the framework for the regeneration of NATO during the alliance’s Wales summit in September. The UK House of Commons Defense Committee’s report on European security, buttressed by British Prime Minister David Cameron’s open letter to the NATO secretary general, helped stiffen Europeans’ sinews. That in turn led NATO to adopt a package of assurance and deterrence measures to firm up Europe’s Eastern flank.

The author writes here strictly in a personal capacity.

The not very surprising answer is that Angela Merkel has led Europe in 2014. To move the EU from frosty cooperation with Russia towards a more confrontational relationship with the country was the most important political process in Europe in 2014. This process has been led and managed by the German chancellor.

Merkel moved the EU from frosty cooperation with Russia towards a more confrontational relationship.

 

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Merkel’s leadership plays out on three levels. Domestically, Merkel has demonstrated her ability to build sufficient support within her own party, CDU, and within in the party of her coalition partner, SPD. With the support of the foreign minister, SPD’s Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Merkel then moves her leadership abilities to the EU level. The compromise formulas found domestically between CDU and SPD often serve as a blueprint for the compromises made on an EU level, as the criticism has already been taken on board. Finally, Merkel has worked closely with U.S. President Barack Obama to present joint front toward the Kremlin.

Sanctions against Russia have not only demonstrated to the Kremlin that the West is ready to defend key international norms. They have made Russia's military attack on Ukraine very costly, bringing the regime into serious trouble. Under Merkel’s leadership, the West has forced a choice on Putin: either stop Russian aggression against neighboring countries or face serious economic pain.

Germany remained unrivalled as the centre of political gravity in Europe in 2014. However, its influence is gradually beginning to wane. Elevated to the role of a reluctant hegemon by the crisis, Germany helped to save the euro, throwing its triple-A credit rating as the guarantee of last resort. Nevertheless, its formula of fiscal stability and structural reform has not delivered the silver bullet to deal with Europe’s growth problems. Instead, Germany herself has slowed and began to show symptoms of social unrest.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel must be given credit for orchestrating Europe’s reaction to the Russian crisis. Her idea was to combine firmness with keeping channels of communication open. She has both firmed up the internal German stance on Russia and resolutely made it clear to doubters, such as Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, that sanctions are the only way to respond to President Putin’s challenge.

Germany now seems to be more anti-TTIP than the traditional doubter, France.

 

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At the same time, there has been a growing number of dossiers where German leadership has been found wanting, including—most surprisingly—on TTIP. Today, Germany seems to be more anti-TTIP than the traditional doubter, France. New rhetoric over revamping German security and defense policy has not yet gone much beyond the planning phase.

The waning of German influence opens space for a more collective leadership in Europe in the future. Unfortunately, the number of contenders for the role is not enormous. There is the new leadership team in Brussels, who deserves to be given the benefit of the doubt. Yet abundance of leadership zeal is not Europe’s greatest blessing. Lack of it may become its curse.

There is no doubt that Angela Merkel led Europe in 2014. Merkel did more than any other EU leader to bring Europe together on the single greatest strategic challenge it confronted this year. Without her leadership, German policy on Russia would not have changed to the degree that it has and—without that change—the EU would not have coalesced around its sanctions policy.

Without Merkel, German policy on #Russia would not have changed as it has.

 

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On a less positive note, she also prevented any movement on easing the continuing financial and fiscal stagnation facing Europe. In this regard, she was also the indispensable leader.

There are a few other candidates worth noting for their leadership roles over the past year. Both French President Francois Hollande and UK Prime Minister David Cameron have continued to marginalize their countries’ role in Europe, while the EU itself underwent a leadership change that holds some promise for more leadership from Brussels.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has provided real leadership in Italy and is the clear runner-up to Merkel. The prospect that he will be able to energize Italy faces formidable obstacles, but at least he is trying and represents a new generation of political leaders.

Honorable mentions should be given to former Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt and former Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski for the contributions they made before leaving the foreign policy scene this year. Yet the jury is out on Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who had the most difficult job of all and has handled an impossible situation well to this point.

Both Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage had a major impact on domestic events in France and the UK and may still lead Europe in the future toward disintegration. A very mixed bag indeed.