• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUUkraine
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Judy Dempsey"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Strategic Europe",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "EU Integration and Enlargement"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Europe",
    "Eastern Europe"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "EU",
    "Democracy",
    "Security"
  ]
}
Strategic Europe logo
Commentary
Strategic Europe

The Western Balkans’ Long March to Europe

It’s going to take immense political will to ensure long-term stability and prosperity for Southeastern Europe and to guarantee EU membership for the region.

Link Copied
By Judy Dempsey
Published on Aug 27, 2015
Strategic Europe

Blog

Strategic Europe

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers.

Learn More

Good news is in short supply in the Western Balkans. But this could change after Kosovo and Serbia signed a landmark accord on August 25 that could bring these two neighbors closer to the EU.

The accord, shepherded by Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, was overshadowed by the tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the wars in Syria and Iraq. The refugees have made the Western Balkans—which consist of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia—into a conduit to reach EU countries, especially Germany.

It is not only people from the Middle East and parts of Africa who are seeking asylum in Europe, as EU leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, will discuss with their counterparts from the Western Balkans during their summit in Vienna on August 27.

The German government reckons that 40 percent of those applying for asylum in the country come from Serbia or Kosovo. Forty percent!

“You can’t imagine how serious it has become in the Western Balkans,” said Sonja Licht, the indefatigable president of the Belgrade Fund for Political Excellence, an independent think tank. “The poor and the vulnerable, most of whom are Roma, are leaving in order to escape the abject poverty,” Licht told Carnegie Europe.

Not only that. “There is also a brain drain taking place among the youth,” added Licht. “There’s little to keep them here. Youth unemployment is around 50 percent in Serbia and over 70 percent in Kosovo.”

One of Licht’s biggest worries is the radicalization of the region that will feed growing anti-EU sentiments. Such a pessimistic scenario will do nothing to stem growing corruption or encourage much-needed foreign investment—let alone spur attempts to introduce economic, political, and social reforms, which have all but stopped across the region.

Moreover, prospects for joining the EU, to which all countries in the region aspire, would fade, hampering long-term stability and the consolidation of democracy in this part of Europe.

That is why the summit in Vienna, the second of its kind at the initiative of Germany, cannot ignore the potential combustibility of the Western Balkans. The meeting must also revive the region’s European perspective instead of just concentrating on the migration crisis, which is dominating the Vienna agenda.

Such a perspective received a fillip on August 25 after the accord signed in Brussels between Aleksandar Vučić, the prime minister of Serbia, and Isa Mustafa, his counterpart from Kosovo. The accord will have immense political and psychological implications for the region. In essence, it moves Serbia and Kosovo another step toward normalizing their relations and, as a result, it is hoped, closer to beginning EU accession negotiations.

For the two neighbors, which were plunged into a bloody war in 1998–1999 that ended with the intervention of NATO against Serbia, the importance of the agreement cannot be overestimated.

The Serb community in northern Kosovo, long at loggerheads with Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority, will be granted considerable autonomy over judicial and budgetary affairs and will be able to receive financial assistance from Belgrade. The community will also have its own official symbols such as a coat of arms or a flag, subject to Kosovar law.

As for Kosovo as a whole, which declared its independence in 2008 but which Serbia and several EU countries have yet to recognize, it will get its own telephone country code, a big concession by Serbia.

Ivan Knežević, deputy secretary general of the pro-EU European Movement in Serbia, has no doubt that the attraction of joining the EU one day was the main incentive for reaching some an accord. “The European perspective is just so important to Serbia and Kosovo,” Knežević told Carnegie Europe.

“This accord is very encouraging. It will contribute to the normalization of relations. I hope that Brussels can now open one of the chapters with Belgrade,” he added, referring to the list of topics that are negotiated between the European Commission and a candidate country.

The breakthrough says much too about the commitment by Mogherini and her predecessor, Catherine Ashton, to establishing a rapprochement between Belgrade and Prishtina. Both have invested much time in mending those ties. Of course, Brussels has a big interest in closing this long chapter of violence and animosity. Only with closure and substantial reforms will foreign investors return to the region and prospects for joining the EU will rise.

Merkel made those points a year ago during a summit with Western Balkan leaders in Berlin and again when she visited Belgrade in July 2015. “Merkel’s visit to Belgrade was crucial. Germany’s support for supporting the rapprochement between Serbia and Kosovo and the region’s integration to the EU is just so important,” Licht said.

The hope now is that the European Commission will begin accession talks with Serbia.

“The signing of the accord just before the Vienna summit is no coincidence,” said István Gyarmati, president of the International Center for Democratic Transition. “It sends a clear message to the leaders there about the political will of Serbia and Kosovo to normalize relations. The EU should open a few chapters with Serbia.”

Now that would be good news.

Judy Dempsey
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Judy Dempsey
EUDemocracySecurityEuropeEastern Europe

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Strategic Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    New Tricks and AI Tools in Hungary’s High-Stakes Election

    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces his most serious challenge yet in the April 2026 parliamentary elections. All of Europe should monitor the Fidesz campaign: It will use unprecedented methods of electoral manipulation to secure victory and maintain power.

      Zsuzsanna Szelényi

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The EU and India in Tandem

    As European leadership prepares for the sixteenth EU-India Summit, both sides must reckon with trade-offs in order to secure a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement.

      Dinakar Peri

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine

    The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. In the meantime, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules.

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: What Issue Is Europe Ignoring at Its Peril in 2026?

    2026 has started in crisis, as the actions of unpredictable leaders shape an increasingly volatile global environment. To shift from crisis response to strategic foresight, what under-the-radar issues should the EU prepare for in the coming year?

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    France, Turkey, and a Reset in the Black Sea

    A renewal of relations between France and Turkey is vital to strengthen European strategic autonomy. To make this détente a reality, Paris and Ankara should move beyond personal friction and jointly engage with questions of Black Sea security.

      Romain Le Quiniou

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.