Artyom Shraibman is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. His research focuses on Belarus-related developments, including domestic politics and foreign policy. He is also the founder of Sense Analytics, a political consultancy.
Shraibman is the former political editor of the TUT.BY website, the most popular non-state media outlet in Belarus and writes frequently for Zerkalo.io (a media outlet created by former TUT.BY staff) on Belarusian politics.
Shraibman has also worked as a senior political advisor to the United Nations in Minsk and as an intern at the German Bundestag, where he assisted the team of MP Oliver Kaczmarek.
Shraibman has an MSc in politics and communication from the London School of Economics and an international law degree from Belarusian State University in Minsk.
For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy vis-à-vis Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, its growing dependence on Moscow, and the absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decision-making.
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss his new paper for Carnegie Endowment, "Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus."
Western leaders’ apathy and lack of interest in Belarus risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that leaves Belarus trapped in Moscow’s smothering embrace more or less indefinitely. This paper identifies options for a more effective Western strategy that takes into account existing opportunities and limitations.
As far as the Belarusian regime is concerned, the threat comes not from its own society, but from external enemies who will use every opportunity to repeat the mass unrest of 2020. That means that every possible weak spot must be shored up.
Just the appearance of a body like the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly after the elections will legitimize conversations about succession within the ruling elite.
A talk on how the situation in Belarus has changed over the past three years, the effects of the war in Ukraine on Belarusian state and society, the regime’s new repressive tools, its growing dependence on Russia, the shared values of Belarusians, and the democratic future of Belarus.
How the Stalemate in Ukraine Has Quietly Revived Lukashenko’s Autocracy
Belarus’ democratic forces recognise the sad reality: the connection between them and the majority of Belarusians inside the country is broken.
By imagining an attack or even an invasion, Lukashenko is increasing the risks of war coming to Belarus.
If Putin changes his mind about Prigozhin and initiates some sort of revenge, Minsk will not be able to protect the Wagner leader, who knows that full well. Lukashenko in turn cannot believe the promises of Prigozhin, a warlord who has just betrayed his patron, to diligently follow Belarusian rules.
