Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright
{
"authors": [
"Karim Sadjadpour"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Iran"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}Source: Getty
Iran's Referendum Election
With both Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi declaring victory in the first few hours into the election on Friday, the incumbent's future remains uncertain, even with the endorsement of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Source: Charlie Rose

"This is very similar to the U.S. presidential election in 2004 between George W. Bush and John Kerry. Even people who were passionately supporting Mousavi, their support was much more passionately against Ahmadinejad than it was for Mousavi. They [Mousavi] have run a remarkable campaign in the sense that they've taken this man of 67 years old, not particularly well-spoken, not particularly charismatic, and they made a phenomenol movement out of it, this green movement. I think that the mood has really shifted in the last week or so. Many people believed in the past that because Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader and Iran's most powerful man, had basically unambigously endorsed Ahmadinejad, that the election would be a foregone conclusion. Mousavi has picked up tremendous steam in the last week or two and I think that if the results come out and they are very skewed in favor of Ahmadinejad, there is going to be major allegations of fraud."
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.
- What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for NowQ&A
- How Washington and Tehran Are Assessing Their Next StepsQ&A
Aaron David Miller, David Petraeus, Karim Sadjadpour
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- What’s Having More Impact on Russian Oil Export Revenues: Ukrainian Strikes or Rising Prices?Commentary
Although Ukrainian strikes have led to a noticeable decline in the physical volume of Russian oil exports, the rise in prices has more than made up for it.
Sergey Vakulenko
- The U.S. Export-Import Bank Was Built for a Different Era. Here's How to Fix It.Commentary
Five problems—and solutions—to make it actually work as a tool of great power competition.
Afreen Akhter
- Russia Is Meddling for Meddling’s Sake in the Middle EastCommentary
The Russian leadership wants to avoid a dangerous precedent in which it is squeezed out of Iran by the United States and Israel—and left powerless to respond in any meaningful way.
Nikita Smagin
- Three Scenarios for the Gulf States After the Iran WarCommentary
One is hopeful. One is realistic. One is cautionary.
Andrew Leber, Sam Worby
- The Fog of AI WarCommentary
In Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran, AI warfare has come to dominate, with barely any oversight or accountability. Europe must lead the charge on the responsible use of new military technologies.
Raluca Csernatoni