Forcing the Military to Choose

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In The Media

Forcing the Military to Choose

The Egyptian military will play a critical role in Egypt's transition period, but whether they will support a democratic transition or the status quo remains to be seen.

By Michele Dunne

Published on Feb 11, 2011

Source: New York Times

Forcing the Military to ChooseSo far the Egyptian military has patiently stuck with President Mubarak in his strategy of doling out concessions with an eyedropper, well past the point at which they would have made any impression on the demonstrators. It is not entirely clear how much of a decision-maker Mubarak will continue to be, or whether he has given much of those powers to Vice President Suleiman. In any event, Suleiman shows no signs of wanting to operate differently from Mubarak, and probably will continue to offer the occasional carrot while applying the stick.

Another question is whether the military will have a public voice separate from that of Mubarak and Suleiman. The Supreme Military Council's "communique #1" issued on Thursday said it would "support the legitimate demands of the people." That statement suggests an effort to establish such a voice, which is a striking departure from the past 20 years or so, in which the military did not speak on political issues.

The Egyptian demonstrators seem to be gaining rather than losing momentum, and at some point soon may try to force the military to choose between the Mubarak/Suleiman regime and the Egyptian people. They could do this by marching en masse, several hundred thousand strong, to the presidential palace and threatening to go over the walls. Such tactics would place much more pressure on the military than it has experienced up until now.

The army would then have to choose between shooting at unarmed protesters or calling on the political leaders to step aside or to meet the protesters' main demands: that Mubarak resigns, the state of emergency be lifted, and the parliament dissolved. It is not clear how much communication there is between the army and the youth organizations steering the protests, and whether such scenarios have been discussed.

About the Author

Michele Dunne

Former Nonresident Scholar, Middle East Program

Michele Dunne was a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on political and economic change in Arab countries, particularly Egypt, as well as U.S. policy in the Middle East.

Recent Work

Research
Islamic Institutions in Arab States: Mapping the Dynamics of Control, Co-option, and Contention
- +6
  Yasmine Farouk, Nathan J. Brown, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, …
Research
From Hardware to Holism: Rebalancing America’s Security Engagement With Arab States
- +8
  Robert Springborg, Emile Hokayem, Becca Wasser, …

Political Reform North Africa Egypt

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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