China, Russia, and the United States—A Shifting Geopolitical Balance

{
  "authors": [
    "Dmitri Trenin"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie China",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "China’s Foreign Relations",
    "U.S.-China Relations"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [
    "Eurasia in Transition"
  ],
  "regions": [
    "East Asia",
    "China",
    "Caucasus",
    "Russia",
    "North America",
    "United States"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

China, Russia, and the United States—A Shifting Geopolitical Balance

As China's power continues to grow, Russians need to rediscover themselves as a Euro-Pacific nation and strengthen ties to East Asia in order to avoid becoming Beijing's junior partner.

By Dmitri Trenin

Published on Mar 2, 2012

Source: Public Service Europe

Russia and China have been aligning ever more closely on a number of international issues, from Syria to Iran to North Korea. Some observers call this a "marriage of convenience". Others refer to it as "an awkward partnership", and some go as far as to suggest China's hegemony over Russia. What is true is that this is an intriguing relationship, which is evolving in a direction where the two countries have never been before. While any return to a Moscow-Beijing axis of the 1950s or the intense Sino-Soviet enmity of the 1960s may not be on the cards, the future of the relationship can definitely affect the geopolitical balance in Asia and beyond.

The chief new element in the relationship is easy to see. It is the historical role reversal. In 1979, China's gross domestic product was a mere 40 per cent of that of the Russian republic within the Soviet Union. Nowadays, China's GDP is between four and five times bigger than Russia's. At the heyday of the Sino-Soviet confrontation, the Soviet Union was a military superpower and the People's Liberation Army was essentially preparing for a "people's war". Today, China's defense budget is the world's second largest, way ahead of the 5th-placed Russia. Even more importantly, China's research and development budget dwarfs Russia's. Ultimately - Russians, who heretofore have never lived with a strong China, need to adjust to the new reality.

The remarkable thing is that, given the enormity of the change and its swiftness, Moscow and Beijing managed to end their 30-year-long Cold War in 1989 and moved toward a generally peaceful and collaborative arrangement. The thorny border issue, a fulcrum of tension in the past, has been resolved. And the border itself has been largely demilitarised. China has become Russia's biggest foreign trade partner, ahead of Germany. Russian arms sales over the past 20 years have helped the PLA to narrow the gap with the world's top militaries. With a number of smaller Central Asian states, China and Russia have formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which helps mitigate their regional rivalry and functions as a platform for dialogue involving much of continental Asia. Finally, on the global arena, Moscow and Beijing speak the language of multilateralism and insist on the sanctity of national sovereignty - and the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs. ...

Full text of the article in Public Service Europe

About the Author

Dmitri Trenin

Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.

Recent Work

Commentary
Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- Dmitri Trenin
Commentary
What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West Revealed
- Dmitri Trenin

Foreign Policy East Asia China Caucasus Russia North America United States

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary
Emissary
What We Know About the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal
Despite the agreement’s uncertainty, it’s still a significant development in regional and nuclear policy.
Andrew Leber, Jane Darby Menton
Commentary
Emissary
A Path Forward on AI Safety for the United States and China
“AI safety in parallel” is modest and pragmatic but vital.
Matt Sheehan
Commentary
Strategic Europe
Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy Now
Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.
Alissa de Carbonnel
Paper
The Alternative für Deutschland and Germany’s Unsettled Place in the World
Unresolved tensions within the AfD may ultimately constrain the its potential as a leader among European and global populist forces.
Jeremy Cliffe
Paper
Negotiating an Age of Conquest: Converting American Power Into Durable Political Outcomes
There is a deeply rooted assumption in post–Cold War American statecraft that overwhelming military and economic power translates directly into favorable political outcomes. But force alone is rarely enough. To meet the challenges of the mid-21st century, Washington needs a cultural shift toward a mindset that takes negotiation far more seriously.
Cecily Brewer

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary

Emissary

What We Know About the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal

Despite the agreement’s uncertainty, it’s still a significant development in regional and nuclear policy.

Andrew Leber, Jane Darby Menton

Trump and Xi standing next to each other

Commentary

Emissary

A Path Forward on AI Safety for the United States and China

“AI safety in parallel” is modest and pragmatic but vital.

Matt Sheehan

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy Now

Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.

Alissa de Carbonnel

Supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party wave German flags at a campaign rally in front of the Berlin City Hall on June 29, 2026.

Paper

The Alternative für Deutschland and Germany’s Unsettled Place in the World

Unresolved tensions within the AfD may ultimately constrain the its potential as a leader among European and global populist forces.

Jeremy Cliffe

Delegation staff members meet in the lobby during a quadrilateral meeting between the U.S., Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar at the Lake Lucerne Summit, aimed at advancing a deal to end the Middle East conflict at the Buergenstock Resort, Lake Lucerne on June 21, 2026 near Stansstad, Switzerland.

Paper

Negotiating an Age of Conquest: Converting American Power Into Durable Political Outcomes

There is a deeply rooted assumption in post–Cold War American statecraft that overwhelming military and economic power translates directly into favorable political outcomes. But force alone is rarely enough. To meet the challenges of the mid-21st century, Washington needs a cultural shift toward a mindset that takes negotiation far more seriously.

Cecily Brewer