Commentary
Thomas de Waal
{
"authors": [
"Thomas de Waal"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [],
"topics": []
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
Watching Erdogan Across a Closed Border
The latest clashes and Erdogan’s crackdown in response reinforce a view in Armenia that the current Turkish prime minister is someone they cannot do business with. A reshuffling of the Turkish cards end up with Abdullah Gul as prime minister and re-championing a normalization with Armenia is not impossible.
Published on Jul 3, 2013
On a brutally hot summer day, the people of Yerevan look across at the magnificent double hump of Mount Ararat filling the horizon across the border in Turkey. Close but unreachable, it is a daily reminder of loss. The past crowds out the present as Armenians look at Turkey.
So most of the reactions I have heard here in Yerevan to the recent troubles of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lack nuance. Few mention the positive changes Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party has made since it came to power. For most, he is basically “just another Turkish leader, who denies the Armenian Genocide and does not open the closed border.”
The reality is more interesting, of course. Erdoğan has overseen the biggest shift in attitudes to Turkey’s minorities—the Kurds in particular—since the 1920s. And he also helped to initiate the move to open the closed Armenian–Turkish border in 2008–10, which failed. Then, of course, Erdoğan acted to block the initiative. He was the one on the Turkish side who moved to undermine the Zurich Protocols, shortly after his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu had signed them in October 2009.
The Armenian governmental elite divide their counterparts across the closed border into “good Turks” and “bad Turks.” Davutoğlu is distrusted and Erdoğan viewed with hostility. The prime minister has made some typically caustic remarks about Armenians in his time in office (and not only about Armenians). Moreover, this spring either he or someone close to him apparently personally vetoed the launch of what would have been a positive Armenian–Turkish confidence-building-measure, when a planned commercial flight between Yerevan and the city of Van was cancelled at the last moment.
The “good Turk” is perceived to be President Abdullah Gül. He was the one who flew to Yerevan in September 2008 to attend the Armenian–Turkish soccer game and who backed the Protocols. In February, Gül was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Sargsyan on his reelection.
The latest clashes and Erdoğan’s crackdown in response reinforce a view here that the current Turkish prime minister is someone they cannot do business with.
Will a reshuffling of the Turkish cards end up with Gül as prime minister and re-championing a normalization with Armenia? It is not impossible—but it’s only one of many scenarios in the turbulent kaleidoscope that Turkish politics is at the moment.
About the Author
Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
De Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
- Europolis, Where Europe Ends
- Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?Commentary
Thomas de Waal, ed.
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.