Nicole Grajewski | The Atlantic
Rebel forces swept into Aleppo on Saturday, capturing the city center in a lightning three-day offensive that seemed to show the slackening of Moscow’s grip on Syria. The symbolism was impossible to ignore: The Syrian regime’s brutal reconquest of that very city in 2016 had demonstrated Russia’s military effectiveness. Now Vladimir Putin’s Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine, and Aleppo has slipped from regime control. But Russia’s commitment to Syria has not actually wavered, and Russia is not really distracted. The advance of Syria’s rebels, led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), reflects the degradation not of Russian attention but of the multinational ground forces supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Mark Hibbs | Arms Control Wonk
Forward-looking smart people grasped that the post-Cold War momentum for nuclear arms reductions would not automatically sustain itself, but also that the commitment to nuclear restraint by 186 non-nuclear-weapon states parties to a nearly-universal treaty is founded in part upon an understanding that in the long term there will be nuclear disarmament, it’s part of the deal. That prospect may have been foolishly taken for granted by many in the heady days after Helsinki, but even today I could invent scenarios in which–as in the 1980s–nuclear-armed states might agree in the near future, including in the case of a burgeoning nuclear arms race or intensifying geo-strategic conflict, to step back from the brink. Preparing the ground work for such a moment is in humanity’s interest.
Christian Davies and Henry Foy | Financial Times
Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte has accused Russia of assisting North Korea’s nuclear programme in exchange for Pyongyang sending troops to help its war against Ukraine, the first such claim by a senior western official. “In return for troops and weapons, Russia is providing North Korea with support for its missile and nuclear programmes,” Rutte said after meeting Nato foreign ministers in Brussels on Wednesday. “These developments could destabilise the Korean Peninsula and even threaten the United States.”
Ruth Comerford and James Landale | BBC
The world is at the dawn of a "third nuclear age" in which Britain is threatened by multiple foes including Russia, the head of the armed forces warned. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said "wild threats of tactical nuclear use" by Russia, China's nuclear build-up, Iran's failure to co-operate with a nuclear deal, and North Korea's "erratic behaviour" were among the threats facing the West. He emphasised the need for more defence funding and reform in a speech at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) defence think tank on Wednesday.
Lewis A. Dunn | Foreign Affairs
Trump, who prides himself on being a daring leader, should use his inaugural address to energize coordinated action by China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—the five nuclear weapons states that are party to the NPT—to prevent the collapse of the nuclear order. He should call on these countries’ leaders to join him in launching a frank and fast-paced assessment of the current dangers and to agree to a six-month “cooling off” period of nuclear restraint while the assessment is underway.
W.J. Hennigan | The New York Times
As the risk of conflict in space climbs, there are surprisingly few international agreements to safeguard against military action there — and no established norms. There are just two major pacts governing nuclear weapons in the cosmos, both of which predate Neil Armstrong’s first steps on the moon. The Limited Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits nuclear tests in the atmosphere, underwater or space, was signed by the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union in 1963. The Outer Space Treaty, which was first signed less than four years later, bans deploying “nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction” in orbit. Today, both decades-old agreements are proving shaky. With a new generation of weapons under development, space experts see a rising potential for miscalculation, misinterpretation and aggression.