• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up?

Source: Getty

Paper

Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up?

Despite the promises made by globalization, in the last twenty years the world's poorest countries have fallen further behind the rich. In a new Carnegie Paper, Branko Milanovic debunks current development theories that explain why poorer countries have not reaped the rewards of global economic integration.

Link Copied
By Branko Milanovic
Published on Oct 5, 2005

Additional Links

Full Text (PDF)

Source: Carnegie Endowment

Summary
Despite the promises made by globalization, in the last twenty years the world’s poorest countries have fallen further behind the rich. In a new Carnegie Paper, Branko Milanovic debunks current development theories that explain why poorer countries have not reaped the rewards of global economic integration. Using statistical analysis, Milanovic finds that the higher likelihood of poor countries to be involved in wars and civil conflicts is the most important determinant for their lack of growth while, surprisingly, the effects of domestic reforms or international lending were minimal.

Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up? reaches surprising and valuable conclusions about the effects of globalization on those who feel it most.

Click on the link above for the full text of this Carnegie Paper.

About the Author
Branko Milanovic is a senior associate in the Trade, Equity and Development Project at the Carnegie Endowment. He is also a lead economist in the World Bank’s research department, where he works on the topics of income inequality and globalization.

This is a web-only publication.

About the Author

Branko Milanovic

Former Adjunct Scholar

Milanovic is a lead economist in the World Bank's research department,where he has been working on the topics of income inequality and globalization. Previously, he was a World Bank country economist for Poland and a research fellow at the Institute of Economic Sciences in Belgrade.

    Recent Work

  • In The Media
    Global Crisis: How Far to Go? Part I

      Branko Milanovic

  • Other
    Political Alternation, Regardless of Ideology, Diminishes Influence Buying: Lessons from Transitions in Former Communist States

      Karla Hoff, Shale Horowitz, Branko Milanovic

Branko Milanovic
Former Adjunct Scholar
Branko Milanovic
North AmericaEconomyTrade

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Forbidden City on a cloudy day
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Beijing Doesn’t Think Like Washington—and the Iran Conflict Shows Why

    Arguing that Chinese policy is hung on alliances—with imputations of obligation—misses the point. 

      Evan A. Feigenbaum

  • China Financial Markets
    Commentary
    China Financial Markets
    A China Financial Markets Post

    Description of the post.

      Michael Pettis

  • IMF World Bank Annual Meetings
    Paper
    Getting Debt Sustainability Analysis Right: Eight Reforms for the Framework for Low-Income Countries

    The pace of change in the global economy suggests that the IMF and World Bank could be ambitious as they review their debt sustainability framework.

      C. Randall Henning

  • Trump raises hands behind a lectern
    Commentary
    Emissary
    How Middle Powers Are Responding to Trump’s Tariff Shifts

    Despite considerable challenges, the CPTPP countries and the EU recognize the need for collective action.

      • Barbara Weisel

      Barbara Weisel

  • Trump’s Protectionism and Future of Global Order: How Useful Are Appeals to History?
    Research
    Trump’s Protectionism and Future of Global Order: How Useful Are Appeals to History?

    Donald Trump’s trade protectionism has provoked a remarkable range of appeals to history, but none fully captures the nature of Trumpian protectionism, even if there are echoes from the past in different aspects of its content.

      Eric Helleiner

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.