Speaking to the Diplomat, Carnegie’s James L. Schoff explained that the major highlight of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to the United States was the new defense guidelines between the United States and Japan, announced at the earlier “2+2” meeting, even though these guidelines did not directly involve the prime minister’s visit. These guidelines bring fundamental changes, he explained, such as greater integration for noncombat operations and the establishment of mechanisms to deepen alliance coordination. He said that the goal of Abe’s actual visit and his speech to Congress was to lay the foundation for greater alliance cooperation going forward and that this was accomplished.
Schoff also discussed Abe’s speech to Congress, which was considered by some to be a preview for remarks he will make in the fall of this year commemorating the end of the war. Schoff said that Abe chose to focus on the U.S.-Japan relationship in his talks and addressed an American audience.
Turning back to the guidlines, Schoff explained that they were a product of three separate scenarios: the Japanese government shifting from DPJ to LDP control and the Japanese public’s subsequent simultaneous disenchantment with DPJ policies and sufficient acceptance of the LDP’s platform, the continued existence of North Korean nuclear weapons along with China’s increased military spending and disagreement with Japan over territory issues, and worry in the Asia-Pacific over U.S. staying power in the region. The guidelines enable greater integration: both the United States and Japan should be able to come to each other’s aid and engage in mutual asset protection, which would result in a more balanced relationship between the two countries. He said that this potential closeness was a psychological deterrence in-and-of-itself, and Japan now has more responsibility for its own defense.
The guidelines should also be of use for encouraging future of trilateral cooperation, Schoff added. He said that more planning between Japan and the United States should make it easier to plan with other countries, such as Australia and South Korea. Schoff said that cooperation would be easier with Australia than South Korea, because the United States already has an information sharing agreement in place with Australia. He added that while Japan may not necessarily take more actions to engage more in multilateral and minilateral cooperation, it can definitely engage in more planning.