Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie China",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [
"China’s Foreign Relations"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [
"Eurasia in Transition"
],
"regions": [
"East Asia",
"China",
"Caucasus",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Economy",
"Trade",
"Foreign Policy",
"Security"
]
}Source: Getty
Stability Before Profit in Russia's East Asian Strategy
While developing its Asian strategy, Russia will certainly give a lot of attention to cooperation with China, but it will not ignore its interests and opportunities in other countries in the region.
Source: Global Times

Gazprom is definitely after gas, oil, and money. However, it is over 50 percent state-owned and closely aligns its policies with those of the Russian Federation. The Russian government, too, is eyeing Vietnam with much interest. Hanoi, to Moscow, is not only a Soviet-era ally, but a gateway to Southeast Asia, a region Russia is seeking to enter as it diversifies its political and trade relations.
Russia's non-energy exports include arms, and Vietnam has greatly increased its purchases of Russian arms, which include submarines and fighter aircraft. With Russian arms sales to China in a trough, Vietnam is second only to India among Moscow's clients. Russia has also been trying to sell its weapons to other ASEAN countries, including Indonesia.With its current APEC chairmanship and the accession last year to the East Asia summits, Russia is paying increasing attention to Asia. This is only logical, given the country's Euro-Pacific position. To be able to operate with confidence in Asia, Russia needs to understand the complexities of Asia-Pacific balancing.
It goes without saying that Russians see stable and productive relations with China as a great asset. The peace and quiet along the Russo-Chinese border, vibrant economic ties between the two countries, and political cooperation between Russia and China on a host of international issues are all highly valued. No Russian leader will ever wish to return to a state of hostility with China.
Russia and China are partners in many things, but they are also competitors in some. In a globalized world, China, with its economic clout, is increasing its influence in many areas, including central Asia. Some international scholars even call the region China's backyard, and see Moscow on a retreat there. Russia, for its part, maintains close relations with India and Vietnam, which have territorial disputes with China.
It would be wrong, however, to focus on this competition and downplay strong mutual interests that currently prevail in Sino-Russian relations. Russian leaders, contrary to several of China's other neighbors, have never expressed fears over China's meteoric rise in the last three decades. The Russian public has not been seized by panic, even though the balance of power between China and Russia has dramatically reversed. Keeping one's nerve is crucial.
Current Sino-Russian relations are mature enough to maintain proper balance between shared and national interests. A mature relationship means that neither party takes the other one for granted. Russia recognizes that the South China Sea is an area of competing territorial claims, which Moscow hopes will be resolved peacefully. Gazprom's energy projects off the coast of Vietnam lie well outside the disputed waters. Russia will not want to alienate China by putting profits ahead of its own national security.
As Vladimir Putin enters the Kremlin a third time as Russian president, his goal is restoring Russia's position as one of a half-dozen most powerful nations in the world. Moscow's focus will be squarely on the economy, and it will require stable relations with both the US and China.
In modern Russian parlance, Putin's favorite notion of a great power means, above all, strategic independence from both the US and China. Putin's "Eurasian Union" is a means to establish closer and more equitable relations with the European Union. And, even as it builds a "greater Europe," Russia will have to develop an Asian strategy. Within that strategy, it will certainly give a lot of attention to partnership and cooperation with China, but it will not ignore its interests and opportunities in other countries, from India to Japan to, yes, Vietnam. The Russians hope that the Chinese will understand the motives behind Moscow's moves.
About the Author
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet SpaceCommentary
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Trump Turns NATO into a Tool of CoercionCommentary
The full list of humiliations Europe has endured since Donald Trump returned to the White House makes for grim reading. But Washington’s adversarial approach to its allies undermines its own power base.
Rym Momtaz
- How the EU Can Become Energy IndependentCommentary
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis, but Europe is stuck in reaction mode. Without more strategic foresight, the EU will remain dependent on fossil fuels and will never be truly secure.
Milo McBride, Pauline Gerard
- Deciphering Europe’s Relationship with TurkeyCommentary
Debate is heating up on how Turkey could be integrated into a common European defense framework. Commercial and industrial deals offer a better chance at alignment than sweeping political efforts.
Marc Pierini
- Taking the Pulse: Is it Worth it for Europeans to Placate Trump?Commentary
After spending much of 2025 trying to placate Donald Trump, some European leaders are starting to change posture. But is even a hostile Washington still so important to Europe that the U.S. president’s outbursts are worth putting up with?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- Europeans Are Quiet Quitting the United StatesCommentary
European leaders have now not only lost faith in Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency, but also in America’s hegemony as a whole. But short-term challenges make an immediate divorce unwise.
Rym Momtaz