The Alternative for Germany (AfD), an extremist far-right party, has come first in the election to Saxony-Anhalt’s state parliament, more than doubling its vote share from the previous election five years ago. But it fell short of an absolute majority by just three seats.

Once a small party founded in 2013 by Euroskeptic west German economists, the AfD won 43.8 percent of the vote, up from 20.8 percent in 2021. German Chancelor Friedrich Merz’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had governed the state since 1990, lost nearly twenty points, landing in second place with 17.2 percent against 37.1 percent in 2021.

Although the state is small, with only 2.1 million inhabitants, and the second poorest in Germany, the AfD’s landslide could upend the country’s post-Second World War consensus.

It will be the first time since 1945 that a far-right-wing party is on the verge of being catapulted into power. This confirms the fragmentation of Germany’s political system and dents the country’s reputation as a predictable, stable operator—a reputation that is crucial to its role as the EU’s largest economy. And it shows the difficulties faced by established parties in dealing with immigration, social uncertainty, and economic insecurity that populist parties have tapped into.

The AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt is due to its thirty-five-year-old lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund. His relentless campaigning, especially on social media, his charisma, and his ability to exploit voters’ disillusionment with Germany’s political establishment contrasted with the staid campaigning of the CDU and the Social Democrats.

Whether it was his anti-immigration platform, his anti-EU polemics, his pro-Russia stance, or promises to stop aid and weapons to Ukraine, each topic struck a chord with voters. Election slogans—“we want our country back” and “everything is possible”—along with chants of “we are the people” at a major rally in the state capital, Magdeburg, played into voters’ sense of grievance. In interview after interview, people told me they were nostalgic for the old days of communist East Germany, the German Democratic Republic. “Everything was certain, everything was easier. We had jobs,” said Marlies, aged seventy-one: “The AfD understands us.”

Siegmund’s victory, the AfD’s success overall, and how the party translates its electoral success into delivering on campaign promises will be scrutinized by other populist movements across Europe, where immigration, inflation, energy costs, and lack of affordable housing are common issues.

With elections due in France, Poland, and Spain in 2027, populist and nationalist parties may try and emulate some of the AfD’s tactics.

Having fallen just short of an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, the party is now in for a few uncertain weeks. Siegmund has thirty days to form a state government. He could take the risk of leading a minority government—which would need to be approved by the party—or enter into coalition with the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a far-left-wing, pro-Russia, and anti-EU party that won five seats. That would be enough to give Siegmund the absolute majority of forty-two votes in the eighty-three-seat legislature. He could also attempt to recruit some defectors from other parties.

For now, nothing is certain. At an election rally in Magdeburg, AfD supporters balked at the idea of depending on the BSW.

The party’s national leadership has already appealed to the CDU to cooperate. Tino Chrupalla, the AfD’s national coleader said it was time for CDU lawmakers to make a “center-right conservative majority [in Saxony-Anhalt]” possible.

Merz, however, is sticking to the so-called “Brandmauer” policy: a firewall that essentially rules out cooperation—even though some does take place at the local level.

Any CDU defections in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament would weaken the party even further in the polls. It would be considered a highly unpopular move and would give more legitimacy to the AfD. In addition, it would call into question Merz’s ability to keep his party united at a time when the AfD is running ahead with 29 percent in the national polls compared to the CDU’s 21 percent. The chancellor recognized what was at stake. “This shakes our party to its very foundations,” he said the day after the election, “we cannot simply carry on as before, nor can I, nor can the federal government […] our party system is undergoing a tectonic shift.”

That constellation comprised conservatives, social democrats, and liberals. With the addition of the environmental movement during the 1980s, the system was anchored on a strong constitution designed to protect the country’s post-1945 democratic institutions and on consensus politics.

The result in Saxony-Anhalt challenges that consensus in ways that could have repercussions for pending state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. There, the AfD will try and piggy-back on this success.

With these state elections in mind, Merz insisted his governing coalition in Berlin would stick to its new reform program. It involves an overhaul of the pension, health, and social welfare systems, in addition to spending more on infrastructure and defense.

But the coalition parties have a fundamental challenge: They have depended on the older generation for their support, giving them regular pension increases. This has alienated a younger generation that has grown disillusioned with the political status quo.

Merz is now under immense pressure to regain the political initiative. His popularity is at an all-time low since becoming chancellor in 2025. His coalition has spent much of its time squabbling over how to rein in social welfare benefits and how to deal with climate issues.

If Merz is to survive as chancellor until the next federal election in 2029, he needs to take one big lesson from the AfD’s repeated successes on the local level. It is about listening to voters and talking to them. It is about explaining why his reforms should and can work. It is about being open with the public. All of which takes time. But Saxony-Anhalt shows how time is not a luxury for Germany’s waning status quo.