1998 World Refugee Survey

July 30, 1998

Moderator: Kathleen Newland, Senior Associate, International Migration Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Panelists: Roger Winter, Executive Director, US Committee for Refugees, and Bill Frelick, Senior Policy Analyst, US Committee for Refugees, and Associate Editor, The World Refugee Survey

This briefing marked the release of the US Committee for Refugees’s (USCR) annual publication, which this year celebrates its fortieth anniversary. In her introductory remarks, Kathleen Newland congratulated the team effort that produces The World Refugee Survey each year, and applauded the publication as a valuable reference for its "seriousness, credibility and independence."

Looking back over the Survey’s forty-year history, Ms. Newland noted that many of the issues contained in its pages are still with us. Comparing past editions with today’s, she noted with humor the 1965 Survey headline: "Cuban Refugees: Unfinished Business." However, she also pointed to the publication’s growth in size as an indicator of both good and bad news. Although the Survey’s growth demonstrates that refugee problems don’t go away, such growth also represents greater awareness, attention and knowledge of such issues. Ms. Newland credited USCR for helping to bring about this positive development.

Roger Winter drew attention first to the "Year in Review" page of the Survey and its "Statement of Agenda." He suggested that the agenda was not very different from that of forty years ago because USCR continues to pursue similar principles, which include:

1. Preservation of asylum.
2. Quality of asylum.
3. A renewed perception and approach to solving the problems of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
4. The characteristics and quality of repatriation (is it voluntary?).
5. Answering the question of causation.

He re-emphasized Ms. Newland’s comment that the Survey is a team effort, recognized the contributions of individual members of the USCR staff, and pointed out that the publication is an in house production. Mr. Winter also commented specifically on the Survey’s dedication to Chim Cham Sastra, a Cambodian who combated the Khmer Rouge, then joined humanitarian monitoring efforts first in Cambodia and later in the Great Lakes region of Africa before being killed by genocidaires in Rwanda. Mr. Winter said USCR chose Mr. Sastra because he personified the interconnections among humanitarian crises.

Bill Frelick turned to page three of the Survey to highlight statistics and trends he suggested were counterintuitive. He noted a 23 percent decrease in the number of refugees from 1992 through 1997. He also cited the World Watch Institute’s latest report, which showed that the number of armed conflicts in the world has decreased nearly 50 percent between 1992 and 1997.

Although, in some respects, these numbers indicate that the world is a safer place, Mr. Frelick, as a refugee advocate, urged his audience not to be complacent. He stressed that overall decreases don’t make a difference to those who are still displaced. And although there may have been a net reduction in the number of conflicts, they have not stopped. He said it is important to consider why these numbers are going down, especially by examining: 1) repatriation; and 2) non-entree, a term coined by Jim Hathaway which describes policies that create barriers to entering to those seeking asylum. Mr. Frelick mentioned recent changes in German and US immigration laws, as well as the efforts of the European Union through the Dublin Convention to create walls for refugees seeking asylum. He attributed increases in alien smuggling to this narrowing of the definition of refugee status, which has increased the numbers of rejected claims. He asserted that Turkey, Ukraine and Russia have become a vast dumping ground for Europe’s refugees, despite their inadequate abilities to provide true protection. This system has evolved into one of "chain deportations," which leads to questions about temporary protection, repatriation and imposed return.

Mr. Frelick noted that in addition to legal requirements of non-refoulement, the psychological and social consequences of genocide and ethnic cleansing also must be treated. In these cases, the refugees’ desire to return ¾ the idea of voluntary repatriation ¾ becomes the best gauge of the situation’s safety for return. However, repatriation (or returning refugees to their original homes) is not the only option. For some, the trauma is too severe ever to return home, so that resettlement or relocation are better options.

In response to questions from the audience, Mr. Frelick emphasized that repatriation continues to be the durable solution preferred by refugees, governments, and especially the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. He explained that other solutions tend to be exceptions that relate to a small fraction of the total. These alternatives are being promoted to put pressure on countries that have inflexible or restricted asylum policies (as in Europe).

Mr. Winter welcomed suggestions from Ms. Newland and Astri Suhrke, also of the Carnegie Endowment, to examine in future Surveys the duration of stays in refugee camps and the phenomenon of multiple displacement.

Updates from the Field

Bill Frelick reported that since he returned from Kosovo in mid-July, the situation there has worsened drastically. In the week prior to this briefing, the Serb government and paramilitary groups have waged a major offensive against the Kosovo Liberation Army. The difficulty of weighing refugee testimonials about the atrocities they have witnessed is a particular problem when access is limited to press reports of gross human rights violations.

He also drew a significant parallel between conflicts in Sudan and Kosovo, where, in both cases, the central government is using food as a weapon to repress a local population whose distinct religion and culture has inspired a liberation struggle from the grassroots level. Mr. Frelick sees a "glimmer" of the use of food as a weapon in Kosovo in the following ways:

1. Serbs have created internal controls on virtually every food stuff; food prices are rising as Serbs force commercial truck drivers to pay high fees.
2. Government troops are burning villages and houses, which include winter food stocks and fuel supplies.
3. 250,000 people are living in hiding in private homes rather than refugee centers; to accommodate them, households are eating up winter food stocks right now.
4. The wheat and corn crops are ready now, but when farmers try to harvest, they are shot at by snipers. Also, Serbs are burning the fields.
5. The Mother Theresa Society (a local NGO that is trusted by the local population) is being persecuted outright; 50 members have been arrested and its convoys are being diverted.

Mr. Frelick said that although the international community is not seeing pictures of starving people, and though the marketplaces appear to be full, Kosovo faces a serious controlled and planned food shortage, and the potential for dire humanitarian consequences, come winter. The situation begs an imposed political solution in addition to human rights and humanitarian monitoring.

Roger Winter explained that the current phase of the war in Sudan began in 1983. In this conflict, the Khartoum government views the southern population as the enemy, and food is an old weapon. An upcoming referendum will seek to define the boundaries of the South ¾ an issue that has tremendous political and economic implications because of the territory’s valuable oil reserves. The government would like to control this southern territory for its oil but without the southern population, which it is seeking to drive out through violent raids and famine. Consequently, the South contains the largest number of internally displaced people in the world. Its society (in terms of institutions, infrastructure, etc.) is absolutely devastated, and therefore has become dependent on relief.

In response to this humanitarian crisis, the UN created a special agency, Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS), which began operating in January, 1989. This agency is responsible for only one location (southern Sudan) and has only one job: to eliminate famine. "Ipso facto," Mr. Winter said, "you have a failed agency."

The current humanitarian and human rights emergency appearing in the media is the result of worsening famine conditions exacerbated by an upsurge in hostilities in the Bahr al Ghazal region. Despite predictions of severe conditions as early as last September, and alerts by NGOs of a full-blown famine in January, the international community was slow to respond until April. Mr. Winter noted that widespread deaths from famine do not occur in the span of a few days, but rather, famine creates a process of dying over many months. He predicted a very difficult next three months. He impressed upon the audience that Sudan is now experiencing the largest food airlift in history.

Hiram Ruiz, a policy analyst at USCR reported on his recent trip to India to examine internally displaced people in the Northeast and Kashmir areas. He noted that although the situation is not well-known and is poorly monitored (even in India), "it is an absolute powder keg" due to the extent and range of ethnic nationalism that produces conflicts among groups and with state and national government authorities. Mr. Ruiz stated that in May 1996, over 200,000 people became displaced and remained so for over a year. It is a situation in which many different groups try to stake out territory amidst intense overcrowding. In some cases, government policies have contributed to large numbers of people moving into a specific area. Where ethnic cleansing occurs, people have no place to go. Those who are displaced live under extremely difficult circumstances. Local officials deal with the crisis on an ad hoc basis; they have provided no solutions and no efforts toward prevention. Mr. Ruiz asked, "What can the international community do when access is almost non-existent?" He urged the audience not to lose sight of these smaller populations of IDPs.

Jana Mason, a policy analyst and Congressional liaison for USCR, spoke about her visit to three major separatist movements in Indonesia: in East Timor (the most prominent), Irian Jaya, and Aceh (a Muslim region on the tip of Sumatra). Ms. Mason spent the majority of her time in Aceh. She said that the fate of up to 3,000 Acehnese refugees in Malaysia remains uncertain, since Malaysia is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention that requires non-refoulement. Malaysia has begun the forcible return of Acehnese refugees, in a situation so severe that some refugees are scaling the walls of the US embassy there in search of asylum.

To conclude the briefing, Ms. Newland asked the panelists to evaluate the general US response to these emergencies. Mr. Frelick said that actors in Kosovo are waiting for US leadership. He urged US policymakers to rethink the Dayton agreement, by looking "outside the box" for a comprehensive, regional solution. Mr. Winter said that in the case of Sudan, the US is as far behind the crisis as every other international actor, but that once the US gets involved, its contribution is substantial in terms of money for relief efforts.