Two Views on Reforming the System: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

 On Monday, July 18, 2005, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted Dr. Alikhan Baimenov, leader of the AK ZHOL Democratic Party of Kazakhstan, and Dr. Asim Mollazade, M.D., leader of the Democratic Reform Party of Azerbaijan. Carnegie Endowment’s Senior Associate, Martha Brill Olcott moderated the session.

Dr. Mollazade:

The current situation in Azerbaijan remains turbulent with two pivotal events approaching. First, the upcoming parliamentary election will determine whether the country will undertake the much-needed political, economic, and social reforms. Azerbaijan recently joined the Council of Europe, and under this organization’s influence adopted several positive initiatives, including the release of more than 700 political prisoners and an increase in media freedom that has led to the emergence of a couple of hundred independent newspapers. Further reforms, however, are blocked in the legislative body that is still monopolized by a single party.

The goal of the recently established Democratic Reform Party is to break this political monopoly and push Azerbaijan closer to liberal Europe. For the upcoming elections democrats and liberals have come together creating the Union for Democratic Reforms block, which will run candidates in all 124 districts. Expectations for success are high assuming a free and fair election. Thus, it is crucial for the international community to send election monitors to discourage the ruling party from interfering.
The second major development is the opening of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, soon to be followed by the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas line. These routes will break Russia’s transport monopoly, providing an alternative way for Caspian energy resources to reach Europe.
Russia has changed its strategy in the South Caucasus. While previously Russia used military forces, it is now attempting to exert its influence, especially in Georgia and Azerbaijan, through its extensive media resources. A scenario similar to Russia’s interference in the Ukrainian presidential election, seems to be developing in Azerbaijan as Russian media is throwing their support for certain candidates.
Iran might also become a serious problem for Azerbaijan. Iran’s new president has a dark history, having participated in terrorist operations in and out of Iran. Last week’s clash between a Wahabi terrorist group and security forces near Baku and last month’s arrest of participants in a group linked to Al-Qaeda, testify to the presence of extremists in Azerbaijan. If Iran decides to support such elements, domestic security in Azerbaijan will suffer greatly.

Dr. Baimenov:

Kazakhstan is considered a leader in the Central Asian region in areas like: nonproliferation, the fight against terrorism, economic reform, public accord and political stability. However, the present complaisance of the current regime, threatens to undermine past accomplishments and future security.

The splendid economic successes in GDP growth in Kazakhstan occurred mostly due to high oil prices. Unfortunately, a high level of corruption is preventing the development of a financial sector, which is the needed for economic diversification. For the majority, the problem is not only the realization of political but also economic freedoms. The courts’ dependence on the executive branch leads to heavy corruption, undermining property rights and forcing businessmen to rely on politicians. The root of the problem lies in the political system, which is the bottleneck for all other reforms.

Today, a significant democratic base exists in Kazakhstan. People understand that without democratic assets, security and independence will always be threatened. If President Nursultan Nazarbayev shares this view, he must undertake the first phase of the political reform before the upcoming election. Only this step, along with the release of Galymzhan Zhakiyanov, would be a credible sign of the President’s desire for democratic and honest elections. Unfortunately, with each passing day, government initiated reform becomes less likely, while the possibility of a colored revolution grows.
 

Q & A

Dr. Baimenov: The president’s circle is not uniform. Although internal tensions are growing, as the elite attempt to diversify risk before the upcoming election, overall, they are still united against democratization. Nobody close to the President talks to him publicly or privately about the need for reform. Instead, they reassure him of an 80% support rating, and structure regional trips to show him only the positive developments.

Dr. Mollazade: Azerbaijan’s sensational economic growth, 16% GDP increase in the first half of 2005 that is expected to rise to 19% in the second, although world leading, is driven solely by high oil prices. Monopolies in other sectors stifle growth. New managers are needed to diversify the economy through increased investment in other sectors.
 
Q: What is the position of the democratic faction in Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and what is its message for the 600,000 internationally displaced persons (IDPs)?

Dr. Mollazade: The conflict has been devastating for the country and for the 900,000 refugees, who for 12 years have been living in dire conditions without schools or health services. The Democratic Reform block supports negotiations and peace talks because even a bad peace is better than war. Contact has been made with Armenian liberals who are like-minded. Russian policies, however, present a major obstacle. Recently Russia transferred its military base from Georgia to Armenia, thus showing support for the current Armenian government that resists peace talks. Russia sees Armenia moving closer to itself and Iran while Georgia and Azerbaijan are heading towards the West.

Q: President Nazarbayev recently passed measures to counter extremism including, regulation of religious groups. What effect are these likely to have on extremism in Kazakhstan?

Dr. Baimenov: The new laws also allow for prosecutors and law enforcement agents to regulate media that might "incite violence." The root of the extremist problem lies in the government’s concept of a strong state, which it believes legitimizes its disregard of constitutional rights. This desire to control everything will contribute to the appeal of extremist groups such as Uzbekistan’s Hezb ut-Tahrir group. Religious groups under state oversight lose the essential ability to communicate with their congregations. Without the support of civil society, the government will not be able to purge extremism.

Q: In Ukraine and Uzbekistan, businessmen that had been discriminated against became a strong revolutionary force. Is a similar scenario likely in Kazakhstan? Is the government aware of this threat? If so, what are they doing to control this group?

Dr. Baimenov: Due to Kazakhstan’s economic structure, the biggest enterprises, those in the in mineral extraction industry, are tightly connected with the regime; therefore, these oligarchs are interested in preserving the status quo. President Nazarbayev, however, is worried that the opposition might gain support from smaller businessmen. When the AK ZHOL Democratic Party was established in 2001, some businessmen actively supported it. That was before they began to experience problems from the administration. Enterprises whose managers are known for democratic opinions are under government surveillance, and frequent inspections keep businessmen under government control. Furthermore, a new government ordinance demands that banks disclose all of their transactions. This measure will negatively affect the investment climate, while ignoring the state companies that are the most nontransparent. In short, businessmen in the country remain apprehensive, but they, as well as certain civil servants, understand that without democratic reform there is no future.

Q: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) recently made a strong statement, asking US to exit from Central Asia after completion of the anti-terrorist campaign. Does Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan support this resolution?

Dr. Mollazade: Azerbaijan is not a member of the SCO. Eighty percent of the population supports further Western integration, along with future cooperation with US and NATO on mutual interests, such as the Caspian energy network, democracy, and antiterrorism.

Dr. Baimenov: Kazakhstan’s government does support the SCO resolution—issued from the country’s capital on President Nazarbayev’s birthday. However, while the SCO is crucial to regional security, the U.S. and NATO should be viewed as partners rather than competitors. The Kazakhstan people hope that the SCO will not view democratization as a threat to security.

Q: A free and fair election can not occur without equal access to mass media. What is the media situation in each respective country?

Dr. Mollazade: Following a Council of Europe obligation, Azerbaijan is scheduled to open a public TV station in early august that will grant equal access to all candidates. Current private media outlets owned by oligarchs also grant access to all, but these stations are local and limited to cities. Government media resources are outdated and unpopular. Print media offer the better opportunity for candidate campaigns, but a limited advertisement market threatens the independence of this outlet.

Dr. Baimenov: Unquestionably, an election without equal access to television stations is unfair. In Kazakhstan, either the state or the President’s family owns all national TV stations, and this is not likely to change. Like in the previous election, a short TV debate will probably be organized for candidates, but President Nazarbayev will not participate, and candidates will be under severe time limitations. 

 Summary prepared by Roman Ginzburg, Junior Fellow with the Russian and Eurasian program at the Carnegie Endowment.