The political and security situation in the Caucasus has changed, and it would be a mistake to not ask ourselves, in a dynamic moment like this, whether there are any new opportunities to build a more promising future in the wake of a tragic past.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is driving Georgia’s government toward closer alignment with Moscow and other illiberal states

Western diplomacy regarding the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has unwittingly helped Russia’s effort to reassert its influence in the region. 

While Baku appears inclined to pursue a “business only” arrangement with the European Union, it’s unclear whether that would be acceptable for Brussels.

As the war in Ukraine has passed its second anniversary, two major elections are on the horizon. In June, the European parliamentary elections will be held across the European Union, while Americans will take to the ballot box in November to elect the next president. Both elections have the potential to affect Western support to Ukraine and thus the course of the war.

The Kremlin’s options include attempting to organize a coup in Yerevan, or applying economic pressure. Neither is particularly likely.