Presidential Election 2005: A New Stage of Democratic Development in Kazakhstan

IMGXYZ421IMGZYXOn Wednesday, October 26, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a meeting entitled “Presidential Election 2005: A New Stage of Democratic Development in Kazakhstan.” The featured speaker was Dr. Karim Massimov, Advisor to President Nursultan Nazarbayev. Minister of Economy and Budget Planning Kairat Kelimbetov and Election Commission Deputy Chairman Vladimir Foss also spoke. Carnegie Senior Associate Martha Brill Olcott chaired the meeting. The speakers’ remarks are summarized below.

Kelimbetov: Kazakhstan is in excellent macroeconomic health. It enjoys the number two GDP per capita in the CIS. The government is trying to avoid the “Dutch disease” by creating jobs and fostering sustainable development. For any oil-producing country rent seeking can be a problem. Kazakhstan is aiming for greater transparency in order to combat rent-seeking. For example, we have joined the British Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. Our ultimate goal is a sustainable middle class.

Foss: Kazakhstan will hold its presidential election on December 4. Originally there were four nominees put forward by civil society and 14 others. Only five were registered, as five failed the language examination, five couldn’t gather the necessary number of signatures (a candidate must obtain signatures from one percent of the electorate), and two withdrew. The five remaining candidates are: President Nazarbayev, Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, head of the opposition party “For a Just Kazakhstan,” Alikhan Baimenov of the “Ak Zhol” party, Mels Eleusizov, leader of the “Tabiyghat” (Nature) party, and MP Erasyl Abilkasymov, of the Communist People’s Party. The campaign will run from October 24 through December 2. Candidates will have equal access to the mass media. Kazakhstan is already hosting 43 long-term OSCE monitors and expects to host 400 more during the elections. There will also be observers from the CIS and other international organizations. All NGOs will be able to field observers. During the last elections there were more than 25 thousand total observers and we expect at least that number this time. This will ensure a fair and transparent election.

Karim Massimov: Kazakhstan has the chance to lead Central Asia in political and economic reforms. The best test of an emerging democracy comes to us from Natan Sharansky: if someone can go say something bad about the government on the main square, it appears in the opposition paper the next day, and the man spends the next night in his own bed, then you’ve got a democracy. Kazakhstan will rely on the OSCE to ensure fair elections.

IMGXYZ422IMGZYXQ&A

Q: What about campaign finance? What are the rules and what is the reality? How can candidates get access to media, particularly television?
Foss: Each candidate receives some state funds and he can also raise money on his own. The state contribution is 5.8 million tenge. The minimum guaranteed media access is 15 minutes of television, ten minutes of radio, and two articles in state newspapers. Private fundraising may not exceed two million US dollars. This may be personal wealth, donations, or money from the nominating organization. Media outlets must afford candidates equal time and space.

Q: How will the government distinguish protests, which are restricted by law, from legal voter meetings?
Foss: There will be no restrictions and candidates will have equal rights. Local government organs provide spaces for meetings and the display of campaign materials. Materials can also be posted on buildings with the permission of the owner. Candidates have the right to hold rallies and demonstrations so long as they do so in the manner prescribed by law. If one candidate uses a space for such a meeting, the other candidates have the right to hold their own meetings there. Any citizen can campaign for or against a candidate, but he can’t slander or defame an opponent. Nor can he call for the overthrow of the constitutional order, incite ethnic or religious hatred, or incite violence.

Q: Will there be disclosure of conflicts of interest or campaign finance?
Foss: The Central Election Commission carefully monitors fundraising and spending. Banks holding campaign funds must provide accounting information to the Election Commission within 24 hours of any request. Within ten days after the campaign the Election Commission must print financial disclosures from all of the candidates. If a candidate breaks the rules, he may be barred from assuming office, even if he wins the vote.

Q: Where is Kazakhstan in the WTO accession process? When do you expect to join?
Massimov: I’ve been advised not to give a date. We hope to sign the bilateral agreement with the US soon. It’s too late for Kazakhstan to join the WTO this year, but the US does support our bid for accession.

Q: Can we assume Kazakhstan will join the WTO just after Russia? If not, Russia will be in a position to dictate terms on all trade disputes.
Massimov: Yes.

Q: Define “defamation.” If the opposition mentions the ongoing legal procedures in New York will that be defamation? [The US has charged businessman James Giffen with bribing Kazakh officials, including President Nursultan Nazarbayev, in return for lucrative oil contracts. The alleged bribes total $78 million.]
Foss: In Kazakhstan, as in the west, these issues are fair game. We understand that in the heat of a campaign people may go beyond “civilized” behavior. Candidates do have the right to answer any charges in the forum where they were made. If the issue rises to the level of defamation, the aggrieved candidate can sue.

Q: What do you make of the complaints of international NGOs in Kazakhstan? Do you expect to rise in this year’s Freedom House ranking?
Massimov: This is a critical moment for Kazakhstan’s political development. Nobody can argue with our economic and social development. GDP per capita is number two in the CIS behind Russia and our oil industry is strong. President Nazarbayev believes NGOs should be free. The criticism from the National Democratic Institute, the Soros Foundation, and others is good. The upcoming election may well change the world’s view of Kazakhstan.

Q: Why should we believe you this time? You said the same thing five years ago. What if the OSCE again reports the election was not fair?
Massimov: On December 5 the government will say it’s all perfect. You guys will say it’s all wrong and a fraud. NGO voices are crucially important for us. In fact NGO reports are more important in Kazakhstan than in the West.

Q: What about press freedom in Kazakhstan? One printing house suddenly stopped printing four or five opposition newspapers without explanation.
Massimov: Which papers? What printing house? If you’re asking a question you should be more specific. This was a private business decision, but in any case another printer has picked up those papers. You can buy them anywhere on the street.

Q: It’s hard to change the pattern of elections even if there’s political will at the top. You need a huge, concerted effort. How will people like you pressure local officials? How will you convince them the president wants things done differently?
Massimov: We can’t do this alone. Civil society is very important in this regard.
Foss: The president issued a decree to the government and political parties stating that the elections must be free and fair. It provides for serious punishments in the event of vote-rigging or manipulations. These punishments will apply to local officials “trying to please” the president.

Summary prepared by Matthew Gibson, Junior Fellow with the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.