Egypt's Next Steps - and America's Policy Choices

Michele Dunne presented a draft of her forthcoming Carnegie paper  (January 2006) on the topic of political reform in Egypt. The paper is one in a series of Carnegie Endowment country case studies on the Arab world, which attempts to address what would constitute qualitative political change in each country and what role can outside forces play to support a domestic reform process.  Dunne argued that although the changes in law and policy that Egypt has undertaken in the past year do not put the country on a firm course for democratization, they contain the seeds for further political opening. But recent parliamentary elections highlighted serious distortions in the Egyptian scene: widespread voter apathy; extreme weakness of opposition political parties; the lack of a legal venue for Islamist representation; and the role of security forces in political life. For Egypt to make further progress, there would need to be significant further constitutional and legal changes, including introducing presidential term limits and amending the electoral system and procedures for forming political parties. At this new juncture, two principles should govern U.S. policy.  First, the Mubarak era is drawing to a close and the United States should focus on new parameters for the bilateral relationship in the new era.  Second, rather than trying to get involved in specific policy issues, the United States should continue to press for openness and development of a democratic system so that Egyptians can devise their own solutions. Attention and occasional public comments by high-level U.S. officials will be essential, as will private diplomacy with the Egyptian government. Areas where the United States should exert some leverage include Free Trade Agreement talks and more effective use of economic and military assistance. 

Summary prepared by Dina Bishara, Junior Fellow in the Democracy and Rule of Law Project.