On April 23 and 24, the Carnegie Middle East Center held a workshop on “Iraq and Its Neighbors: the Consequences of the War Seen from the Region.” Experts from Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, as well as experts from Carnegie’s headquarters in Washington attended the event. Delegates examined the political and economic effects of the tumultuous and costly U.S.-led occupation in Iraq on the wider region. The meeting also analyzed how regional powers could help ameliorate the deteriorating situation. 

The first day featured discussions on the political situations in and around Iraq.  Iraqi participants highlighted the challenges presented by interethnic and inter-communal conflict, the anti-occupation insurgency, weaknesses in Iraqi security and political institutions, and regional tensions.  Complex relations in the region make Iraq’s significant challenges harder.  Tehran’s opaque decision-making matrix, combined with its tense relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia, make its influence in the Iraqi government and among militia groups problematic.  Turkish-Kurdish relations remain unsteady, with Turkey at once opposing Kurdish independence while having the potential to promote significant development in the region thanks to sizable economic investments. Saudi Arabia has recently demonstrated commitment to constructive negotiations, but its role as a regional actor remains controversial. Jordan and Syria face the considerable social and economic challenges of absorbing roughly two-million Iraqi refugees that have fled the conflict. Lebanon, still trying to recover from its destructive war with Israel, remains caught in the midst of rivalries between Saudi-American and Iranian-Syrian camps. Further, Lebanon faces the real threat that the Sunni-Shiite violence we see in Iraq could erupt in Lebanon as well.

Throughout the second day, participants explored possible challenges that may arise as a result of the current conflict and what sort of policies we should expect from major actors in and outside the region. The group focused on identifying initiatives that could lead to greater internal stability in Iraq, a reduction in regional tensions, and strengthening of support for the Iraqi government.