Reviewing the Regional Approach to Afghanistan

IMGXYZ2693IMGZYXThe Obama administration will evaluate the progress that has been made in crafting a regional approach to Afghanistan as part of its upcoming war strategy review in December. Ambassador Chinmaya Gharekhan, former permanent representative of India to the United Nations and the prime minister's special envoy on West Asia, along with Ambassador Karl F. Inderfurth, former assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs and a professor at George Washington University, and Carnegie's Ashley J. Tellis spoke about the possibility of reaching a regional peace settlement in Afghanistan.

The Need for a Regional Approach

Time is running out for the United States and the international community to find an approach that will end the conflict in Afghanistan, Inderfurth said. A regional effort to work with Afghanistan’s neighbors and local stakeholders to reach a peace deal is an essential component for any lasting arrangement.

• Regional Interests: There has been no serious attempt to bring together disparate parties such as India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran in order to push for a peaceful and realistic settlement in Afghanistan. The efforts already underway to reach an internal settlement within Afghanistan must be joined with similar efforts to come to an external agreement. Without an agreement between the large regional players, an internal peace cannot hold, said Inderfurth.


• Iran: The United States must be willing to engage Iran on Afghanistan even as U.S. concerns about its nuclear program persist, because there can be no workable regional solution without Iran’s help, Inderfurth added. As a close neighbor, a regional power, and a strong cultural influence, Iran’s involvement in a regional peace process is critical.


• A Neutral Afghanistan?: President Hamid Karzai has expressed reservations about a regional approach based on Afghanistan’s future as a permanently neutral state. However, if Afghanistan’s position is framed as a guarantee of noninterference by outside actors in Afghan affairs, rather than as Afghan neutrality in regional affairs, Karzai might be convinced.

How a Regional Approach Would Work

Gharekhan addressed several practical obstacles that must be overcome to create a workable regional approach.

• Afghani Agency: The best actor to take the initiative toward a regional agreement is Afghanistan itself. If Karzai moves forward with a regional approach, it will be almost impossible for other countries not to support it.


• Non-Interference: Any regional arrangement must include an agreement by regional stakeholders not to interfere in Afghanistan’s affairs. Gharekhan suggested that the best way to achieve such an agreement is through a series of regional conferences between the interested parties. Any final agreement would require a procedure for registering complaints and adequate monitoring of compliance with the agreement, though he suggested that a regional agreement could remove the need for a large peacekeeping force in the country.


• The Problem of Enforcement: Inderfurth raised the problem of deciding who would regulate and enforce any such regional agreement. Gharekhan recommended that the Secretary General create a United Nations task force, allowing the UN to serve as a neutral and impartial agency to referee disputes.

Skepticism

Tellis noted three reasons that such a regional agreement could prove challenging:

• The Binary Problem: The heart of the problem in Afghanistan is simple and has two components, Tellis stated. First, the Taliban oppose the legitimate government and must be either defeated or integrated into it. Second, Pakistan supports the Taliban for its own geopolitical objectives. The international community will have to either find a way to end Pakistan’s aid to the Taliban or convince Islamabad to use its influence with the Taliban to end the conflict.


• Geopolitical Struggle: A regional approach would attempt to provide a diplomatic solution to what is fundamentally a geopolitical struggle for power and influence, Tellis said. Diplomacy is good at ratifying realities on the ground, but cannot by itself create the ingredients necessary for peace. If the United States fails to defeat the Taliban, an international peace process will not be able to achieve an optimal outcome through negotiations alone.


• The Dominant Player: The United States has a great deal of interest in Afghanistan and its relations with its neighbors. But Tellis pointed out that the United States is unlikely to make the tradeoffs necessary for a successful regional strategy, such as tolerating ambiguity on Iranian nuclear weapons.