Sino-Japan-U.S. Trilateral Relations

IMGXYZ3495IMGZYXDiplomatic relations between Japan and China are still impeded by painful memories of Japan’s colonization of parts of China and by current tensions over the role of the United States in the region. A more positive working relationship between Japan and China could kick-start important developments for regional security initiatives. Effective foreign relations and diplomacy in Northeast Asia requires a balanced approach that incorporates Chinese, Japanese, and American perspectives and goals.

The Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy hosted Washington College’s Andrew Oros, an expert on Japan, to discuss the growing importance and future implications of the Sino-Japan-U.S. relationship.  Carnegie’s Paul Haenle moderated the event.

Mitigating Tensions and Fostering Cooperation

• Cooling Relations: In spite of serious historical tensions between China and Japan, recent efforts to cool tensions and foster a better relationship have helped to reduce the perception of a persisting rivalry, Oros said. Work to establish a Sino-Japanese military hotline, for example, can have a real impact on improving bilateral relations. However, tensions still remain. In particular, Oros added, Japan is wary of China’s increased military spending and modernization of its weapons systems.
   
• Practicality vs. Commonality: Japanese alliances are guided by the principles of practicality and commonality, Oros said. In particular, Japan has a strong relationship with the United States, in large part due to their strategic military alliance. However, Japan worries that the United States might inadvertently pull its ally into a regional conflict. U.S. military activity in Asia might use Japan as a staging ground, which complicates Japan’s role in regional politics. Meanwhile, China is a neighboring power that is crucial for developing the Asian security arena. Oros suggested that while it might be practical for Japan to follow China as China advances and becomes a global leader, such a decision could have implications for Japan’s relationship with the United States. 
   
• Complicated future: So long as the Diayou Islands dispute remains unresolved, it will remain unclear whether Japan and China can develop a prosperous bilateral relationship, Oros asserted. He argued that either a territorial agreement or a resource agreement might serve to settled the conflict, but added that such a settlement remains in the distant future. China remains skeptical of Japan’s close relationship with Washington while Japan is hesitant to engage a neighbor who is friendly towards North Korea, Oros added.

The Role of the United States in the Sino-Japanese Relationship

• Balancing Influence: Over the past few decades Japan and the United States have had a strong multi-faceted relationship, an alliance which has largely dominated politics in Asia, Oros said. As China gains power, it is transforming regional affairs by assuming a more influential role. In the past, Washington favored two separate dialogues and alliances, U.S.-China and U.S.-Japan, and discouraged the two countries from forming a Japan-China alliance. China’s suspicion of U.S. ambitions in the region has prompted a more aggressive posture in the region, especially in regards to developing relations with Japan.
   
• “Minilateralism”:Traditionally, diplomatic problem-solving efforts were pursued through bilateral and large multi-lateral organizations. Oros highighted the emergence of mini-literalism, as canvased by the Six-Party-Talks. This form of diplomacy, which involves a limited number of players, is gaining acceptance as the U.S.-China-Japan relationship gains prominence and will continue to play a special role as Asia reemerges on the global scene, Oros concluded.