Demographic Future of Russia and Other Soviet Successor States

IMGXYZ3303IMGZYXOn October 31, 2011, the world population reached 7 billion. To mark the occasion, the Carnegie Moscow Center hosted a discussion of the demographic future of the post-Soviet states. Reiner Klingholz and Stephan Sievert of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development presented research from their recently published report, The Waning World Power. The Demographic Future of Russia and the Other Soviet Successor States. They were joined by Sergey Zakharov from the Institute of Demography at the Higher School of Economics, who had edited the report. The presentation focused on the region’s negative population growth, the problems posed by negative growth, and potential solutions. Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nikolay Petrov moderated.

A Global Perspective on a Post-Soviet Problem

Klingholz began the discussion by drawing attention to the correlation between a country’s development and its low fertility rate. He stated that this global trend of lower fertility rates has largely been the result of modernization, improved education, and greater gender equity. Post-Soviet countries have experienced this trend as development increased, Siebert added, although their shrinking populations were also in part due to low life expectancies, especially among males.

• “Pioneers to Demographic Change”: Klingholz used Germany’s negative fertility rate as an example of a “pioneer” in demographics, noting that the country has had a negative natural balance—more annual deaths than births—since 1972. According to Klingholz, Russia has followed a pattern of demographic growth similar to Germany’s, two decades later.
   
• Post-Soviet Demographic Shifts: Throughout most of the post-Soviet nations, Siebert noted, population levels have been declining. In Russia, birth rates have been lowest in the northern and eastern parts of the country, with the only three regions recording positive growth rates located in the south—Chechnya (in the Russian North Caucasus), Altai, and Tuva (both in the south of Siberia). Several Central Asian states such as Tajikistan, as well as Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, are predicted to continue to have positive birth rates through 2030, but these rates are expected to decrease as the countries continue to develop.
   
• A Potential Problem: According to Klingholz, current demographic trends have the potential to create problems for future generations, which will have to bear the burden of supporting a large retired population with a relatively small working population. He argued that the “bulge of the past is the problem of our future.” These societies would likely be less productive than the ones that had come before them, although he suggested that this does not necessarily mean they will not be economically successful.

The Challenge in Russia

Siebert noted that Russia faces a unique set of challenges due to its negative population growth. In addition to having a negative replacement rate, it also has a relatively low life expectancy, particularly for males. Long-standing problems such as alcohol abuse, single-parent households, and high abortion rates contribute to social instability, which discourages people from starting a family, he said. 

• Social Instability and Single Mothers: In the post-Soviet era, social instability contributed to lower growth rates. According to Siebert, in modern-day Russia, single mothers contribute to the low birth rate because of the difficulties they face balancing their work and parenting duties. Siebert also noted that the age of motherhood had increased in Russia in recent years, with most mothers now falling in the 25-29 year age bracket, although abortions remain high—approximately four times that of the EU.
   
• Life Expectancy and Alcohol Abuse: Life expectancy in Russia currently stands at 69 years, but is significantly lower in working-age men, Siebert noted. Circulatory disease and external causes are the greatest causes of mortality, with alcohol abuse playing a significant role in both categories. To combat this issue, Siebert suggested that the state should work to address the underlying cause of alcohol abuse—the lack of control that people feel over their lives and scant opportunities for self-fulfillment.

Human Capital as a Solution

To counteract these trends on a global scale, Klingholz recommended working to improve human capital by investing in education, improving the productivity of the existing population, and working to integrate immigrants. Siebert acknowledged that some of these steps would have greater appeal for Russia and its neighbors than others; for example, greater integration with immigrant populations is problematic in the post-Soviet states. Zakharov noted that better policies to deal with the politically controversial issue of immigration are necessary.

• Qualitative, Not Quantitative: Using the example of small but wealthy Switzerland, Klingholz noted that “demography is not a matter of numbers, it’s a number of human capital.” Zakharov expressed a similar view, stating that the number of people in a country is not as important as the social condition and development of these people. Both advocated for improved government policy to address the welfare of the population.
   
• Immigration and Integration: Klingholz said it was important for countries with negative replacement rates to work to better integrate immigrant populations. Siebert argued that such action in modern-day Russia lacked popular support and was not politically feasible. Zakharov said that it is crucial for Russia to take steps to distinguish between different types of migrant workers, low-skilled and high-skilled, and create policies to deal with each specific sub-set. The current policy is inadequate, he argued, and should be improved.
   
• Additional Measures: Klingholz suggested by taking steps such as improving education and family policy, raising the retirement age, and providing continued vocational training, governments could raise the productivity of their future generations. Siebert also recommended improving the quality of healthcare, in particular addressing the high levels of alcohol abuse and abortion in the former Soviet states.