China and the Pivotal 18th Party Congress: Problems and Prospects

IMGXYZ3973IMGZYXThe 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will convene on November 8, 2012, at which time seven of the nine Politburo Standing Committee members will retire, a new Central Committee will be elected, and Xi Jinping is expected to assume the presidency after a decade of preparation. Yet throughout this period of transition, China’s leadership evidently has not allocated power and resources smoothly.

Boston University’s Joseph Fewsmith and the Hoover Institution’s Alice Miller discussed challenges and a range of outcomes for China’s 18th Party Congress. Carnegie’s Douglas Paal moderated.

Challenges

Fewsmith discussed the social and political challenges facing the central leadership and the Party as a whole.

• Social Issues: Rising societal discontent, expressed through increasing numbers of mass protests, reflects a contradiction between local governments’ goals and people’s interests. Corruption, lack of representation, and perceived unfairness are contributing to an erosion of the Party’s legitimacy, Fewsmith said.
   
• The “New Left”: A broad political faction known as the new left has tapped into sentiments of discontent, he explained. New left politicians advocate for neostatism, populist nationalism, and advancing social stability instead of focusing solely on economic growth. Bo Xilai is one well-known representative of this ideology, but Fewsmith said that the new left faction emerged before Bo and will remain in play regardless of his fate.
   
• Leadership Disunity: After two decades of stability, Chinese elite politics is showing signs of heating up, Fewsmith said. A relatively late date for the National Congress and an unusual amount of participation by retired elites reflect a power transition that is bumpier than normal.
   
• Politburo Standing Committee: Rumors are circulating that the size of the Politburo Standing Committee, the elite decisionmaking body of the Communist Party, could decrease from nine to seven members. Regarding who might ascend to the Standing Committee, Fewsmith said that the sole female Politburo member Liu Yandong is likely to be left out. Guangdong party chief and economic reformer Wang Yang’s promotion could be blocked by Bo Xilai supporters, Fewsmith said, which would leave outgoing leader Hu Jintao with very little influence in his retirement.

Comparison With Previous Transitions

Miller interpreted certain trends of this year’s National Congress in comparison to previous transitions.

• Lack of Consensus: Miller agreed with Fewsmith that this year’s process reflects a lack of agreement among senior elites. The relatively late date set for the National Congress, late provincial congresses and guiding speeches, and unusual patterns in meeting attendance and political appointments all point to a trend of policy stagnation and inability to arrive at collective decisions, she said.
   
• Structural Changes: A reduction in the size of the Standing Committee would have implications for policymaking, Miller explained. Under Hu Jintao, the nine members of the Standing Committee each had responsibility for a major policy sector and practiced consensus-based decisionmaking as a group. A reduction in the number of members would imply dissatisfaction with this current process.
   
• Military Leadership: Miller predicted that Hu would stay on as leader of the Central Military Commission after handing the presidency to Xi. In contrast, Paal predicted that Xi will take full leadership of the military. Miller said that she saw Xi consecutively assuming leadership of the party, state, then military, as former leaders have done. Retirements from the military commission could also increase the power of air and naval commanders.

Potential Outcomes

Both Miller and Fewsmith analyzed the potential outcomes of the National Congress and leadership turnover.

• Forecasting New Policy: While Xi Jinping will likely take some time to consolidate power as president, Miller also expects Xi to begin crafting new policy shortly after taking office. The precedent for this was Hu Jintao’s administration, which launched several new policy initiatives in his first term. Fewsmith added that personality-wise, Xi seems to be a more confident leader than his predecessor Hu. Any policy departures would likely not affect foreign affairs, as Miller said that leaders are more focused on solving domestic issues such as social unrest and addressing creeping state sector dominance in the economy.
   
• Bo Xilai: Fewsmith said that the incoming leadership would need to address issues raised by the Bo Xilai scandal. Discussion of Bo’s downfall has focused not just on charges of murder and corruption, but also on the politics of the case. Miller added that Bo’s dismissal has similar historical precedents, including the removal of conservative Beijing mayor Chen Xitong on corruption charges in 1995 and the dismissal of Chen Liangyu in 2006.
   
• Challenges Ahead: The new generation of leaders will need to respond to charges of elitism and counter fears that economic liberalization or “Westernization” will undermine the Party’s control, Fewsmith said. These challenges will make promoting the reform agenda that much more difficult. Even as the Bo Xilai scandal draws attention to the need for more local accountability, Fewsmith said that the Communist Party has backed away from political reforms and retrenched its hierarchical position.