Changing Perceptions in Key Capitals on the North Korea Issue

IMGXYZ4422IMGZYXAfter North Korea’s most recent missile launch, third nuclear test, the nullification of the 1953 armistice with South Korea, and its closure of Kaesong Industrial complex, the threat assessments of the United States and its allies are changing. Based on its own national interests, China is also reassessing its policy calculus toward the Korean Peninsula. Given the heightened threat and changing dynamics, the potential for enhanced bilateral cooperation between the two powers has increased.

Carnegie-Tsinghua’s Paul Haenle hosted a roundtable discussion with top scholars and policymakers from Beijing, Seoul, and Washington on the changing perceptions in these key capitals following North Korea’s continued provocative behavior and the possibility of U.S.-China collaboration.

Reactions to North Korean Aggression

The United States is reassessing the threat posed by North Korea’s behavior based on the country’s newly demonstrated technical capabilities and development projections, said one U.S. participant. However, the threat level felt by regional powers varies from country to country. South Korea’s threat assessment has not changed dramatically from 2010 levels after the recent flurry of provocations, as the North’s near-range capacity remained relatively the same.

• Diplomatic Frustrations: One U.S. participant explained that in the past, China’s offering of diplomatic engagement and concessions following North Korea’s provocative behavior, intended to halt North Korea’s nuclear intentions and capabilities, has been ineffective. It has led to the current U.S. strategy of “strategic patience,” the participant said, adding added that the failure of past initiatives discredits China’s appeal for direct dialogue between U.S. President Barack Obama and Pyongyang.
   
• Japan Feels Threatened: Another U.S. participant explained that Japan felt extremely threatened by North Korea’s nuclear program and ongoing missile tests. He explained that conservatives within the Japanese government were considering enacting Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution and conducting offensive strikes and building up arms.
   
• Perceptions on Kim Jong-un: Kim Jong-un is a young and inexperienced leader, but one who is “rational” and “in control,” one Chinese scholar remarked. While he is currently playing a role similar to Kim Il Sung, an East Asian expert noted that Un promised his people economic development along with nuclear enhancement. Unlike past North Korean leaders, Kim Jong-un has said that North Koreans will not have to tighten their belts. These significant policy shifts often go unnoticed in mainstream media outside of North Korea, the expert added, where the focus is on security and nuclear issues.

China’s North Korean Policy

While the Chinese scholars acknowledged that Sino-North Korean relations are not what they used to be, Beijing remains North Korea’s only ally and lifeline. As a result, several panelists agreed that China could take more serious measures to impose a cost on North Korean defiance, such as enforcing UN sanctions. However, several Chinese scholars responded that China’s fundamental policy toward the peninsula would remain unchanged, and would favor stability above all.

• Peace and Stability: A Chinese scholar stated that while Beijing acknowledges the danger of North Korean brinkmanship, its goal is still to maintain a stable relationship with North Korea. Beijing favors a return to dialogue through the framework of the Six Party Talks, the scholar said, adding that the United States should not act over-aggressively or use China as a tool to strangle the Kim regime. Another Chinese scholar added that there is more opportunity today for U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korea issue due to mutual interests. This cooperation cannot be based on the United States exerting pressure on China, which would only heighten suspicions in Pyongyang, the scholar added.
   
• Potential Change to China’s Policy: A Chinese scholar explained that Beijing has not changed its policy toward North Korea. China’s three policy fundamentals remain the same: peace and stability, denuclearization, and non-proliferation. While there is a vibrant debate ongoing in China’s academic circles, the government’s policy will likely remain consistent. The scholar said that Beijing has demonstrated its irritation and disapproval with Pyongyang through critical official statements by Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, and Wang Yi. However, China is but one player in the region. China does not want to antagonize North Korea because of its close proximity to the country and fear of any instability flowing across the border. Another Chinese scholar added that any change to China’s policy on North Korea would be Beijing’s own initiative and not resulting from pressure from the United States.
   
• Clarifying U.S. Intentions: A Chinese scholar questioned the political aims of the United States in North Korea. He explained that many Chinese assume that the United States seeks a forcible regime change in North Korea. While the United States considered North Korea’s actions as disrespectful to the other powers of the Six-Party Talks, several Chinese participants stressed that all the powers need to hope that the dialogue will succeed.

Opportunities for Future Collaboration

Several scholars agreed that the member countries of the Six-Party Talks need to clarify their respective positions on North Korea. This will promote transparency between the powers and enable deeper cooperation.

• "Peaceful Development Strategy”: A Chinese scholar stated that Beijing should develop a strategy to provide a “soft landing” for North Korea through market liberalization and economic development. This strategy would require China to explicitly state its support for peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula and its opposition to the use of force to change the status quo. The first step, he explained, would be to replace the broken armistice between North and South Korea with a new peace treaty.
   
• Clarifying Official Statements: A Chinese participant suggested that the U.S. leadership should issue official statements clarifying the U.S. strategy toward North Korea to reassure China that the United States is not actively pursuing regime change.
   
• Contingency Planning: The potential of North Korean regime collapse has led U.S. defense experts to consider contingency strategies. One Chinese scholar recognized regime collapse as a potential outcome but explained that active efforts to develop contingency planning were currently not in China’s interest. Instead, such a plan and a proposal for secret negotiations would bring into question the U.S. claim that it did not seek regime change in North Korea.

Discussants: David Mulrooney, Adam Liff, James Baker,  Cole Shepherd, Sun Zhe, Gu Guoliang, Wang Dong, Jia Xiudong, Jin Canrong, John Delury