event

The Challenges of Tunisia’s Political Transition

Wed. April 24th, 2013
Beirut
Since the outset of the Jasmine Revolution in 2011, Tunisia has witnessed a major transformation. The election of the National Constituent Assembly, the formation of the government, and the launch of the National Dialogue Congress were all significant developments in Tunisia’s transition period. 
 
In order to discuss Tunisia’s political transition and the many challenges it faces, the Carnegie Middle East Center hosted a conversation with Mohammad Kerrou, a professor in the faculty of law and political sciences at the Tunis El-Manar University. Carnegie’s Paul Salem moderated.

A Two Phase Transition

The Two Phases: Kerrou began the discussion by dividing Tunisia’s transition into two phases. The initial phase spanned from January 14 to October 23, 2011, and it was marked by fresh legislative elections, the formation of a new government, and a National Constituent Assembly. Following these elections, Tunisia went into its second transitional phase, which is still in process. 

Comparing the Two Phases: Kerrou compared the two phases in terms of both political and economic differences:

  • Rising Political Unease: Whereas the initial phase was marked by relative calm and rare instances of violence, the second phase has been marred by tensions between the government and opposition political actors, he said. This tension is an immediate consequence of the February 6 assassination of Chokri Belaïd, a prominent opposition figure. This assassination marks a turning point in the Tunisian political landscape, argued Kerrou.
     
  • Improving Economic Conditions: Kerrou said that although zero growth was recorded in the initial transitional phase, an encouraging 3 percent growth rate was recorded for 2012. He added that this figure is overshadowed by a hike in the unemployment rate from 15 to 18 percent, growing public debt, and the devaluation of the national currency, in addition to an 8 percent inflation rate.

The Political Crisis

Causes of the Crisis: Kerrou described the chief causes of Tunisia’s political crisis, including:

  • The collapse of the leadership of the previous regime, as well as parts of the regime itself.
     
  • The new government’s lack of experience and competence.
     
  • The absence of a clearly defined road map.
     
  • Absence and delays in the writing of the constitution by the National Constituent Assembly.
     
  • A high degree of fragmentation among the opposition, which includes the Nida’ Tunis Party, the Centralized Laborers’ Union, the Women’s Rights Advocates, Salafist groups, Leftist parties, and the Constitutional Front Party.
Key Players: Kerrou also stressed that, contrary to what is conveyed in the media, the political struggle doesn’t result from an Islamist vision of the country against a secular one, but rather between the government and the opposition.
 
Aspects of Contention: Kerrou highlighted some of the key moments that have shaped this contentious second phase of the transition, including:  
  • February 6, 2013: The assassination of the most prominent opposition figure, Chokri Belaïd.
     
  • April 9: Violent clashes erupted between protesters and security forces in several streets of Tunis during the commemoration of martyr’s day.
     
  • November 27-28, 2012: live shots were fired at unarmed citizens for the first time in Siliana.

Conditions for Consensus

Kerrou concluded with a discussion of what conditions could help bring Tunisians into a more cooperative consensus and move the transition forward smoothly. He suggested these conditions could include:
  • The opposition’s acceptance of the electoral legitimacy of the Ennahda Party.
     
  • Increased coordination between the opposition and the National Assembly.
     
  • Dissolving the Association of the Protection of the Revolution, which is now in the service of the ruling government.
     
  • A real effort to include all political actors.
     
  • Adopting a clear road map for the completion of the constitution.
     
  • Focusing all energies on economic growth.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
event speakers

Mohammad Kerrou