More than 30 years after the launch in 1991 of the Economic Reform and Structural Transformation Program that was supposed to privatize much of Egypt’s state-owned economy, government interventions through laws and regulations remain so widespread that they virtually determine the level and composition of output in many economic sectors, even those in which the private sector owns majority stakes. In June 2022, the Egyptian government appeared ready to change this: It released a draft State Ownership Policy designed as a roadmap for the state to “exit” a number of economic sectors, reduce its role in some, and increase its role in yet others. The release was timed to influence the government’s negotiation over a new loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), its fourth since 2016. Neither the first loan, of $12 billion, nor the accompanying 50 percent devaluation of the Egyptian pound, had fixed underlying weaknesses in the Egyptian economy or improved the country’s exports. Consequently, when the Egyptian government requested a new IMF loan to help it confront the severe financial and economic crisis of early 2022, the Fund demanded structural reforms that would level the playing field for the domestic private sector and enable gains in productivity, domestic savings and surplus, and investment. Since then, the Egyptian government has confirmed its State Ownership Policy as the structural benchmark for the IMF loan program, and announced the partial privatization of several dozen state-owned companies.
Are these measures sufficient to address Egypt’s economic problems? Will the gains from selling shares in some of the more profitable state-owned companies offset the loss of government revenue from them? Are the government’s and the IMF’s expectations of increased investment realistic? How likely are Gulf investors to commit funds on the scale sought by Egypt? And what are the implications of the State Ownership Policy (and the IMF loan program) for the Egyptian military’s prominent role in the economy?
The Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center and the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy cordially invite you to a public panel that will unpack these issues and more. The panel is scheduled for Thursday, May 18 from 5:00 p.m. until 6:15 p.m. Beirut time, and will feature contributions from Ishac Diwan, Robert Springborg, Hafsa Halawa, and Yezid Sayigh. The discussion is moderated by Timothy Kaldas and will be held in English.
The event will also be livestreamed on YouTube. For more information, please contact Najwa Yassine at najwa.yassine@carnegie-mec.org.
