Ceasefire and Strategy: Thailand, Cambodia, and Great-Power Competition in Southeast Asia

As regional leaders wrapped up the annual ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, and Thailand and Cambodia formalized an expanded ceasefire agreement—signed during a ceremony attended by President Trump on October 26—questions about regional security and great-power competition were once again at the forefront. Beijing’s recent offer to mediate the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute, analyzed by Pongphisoot Busbarat in his commentary, sheds new light on China’s evolving role as a security actor in Southeast Asia.  

What does China’s mediation effort reveal about its strategic ambitions in mainland Southeast Asia? How are Thailand and Cambodia responding to this shifting landscape even as they grapple with bilateral border tensions? And how might the outcomes of the Xi-Trump meeting and the ASEAN summit influence the region’s security architecture?   

Join Elina Noor, a senior fellow in the Asia Program at Carnegie, as she moderates a timely conversation with Pongphisoot Busbarat, nonresident scholar at Carnegie China, and Chhengpor Aun, fellowship program manager at Future Forum, to explore these developments and their implications for Southeast Asia’s regional order.