Please Join the Carnegie Middle East program for a discussion on the shifting dynamics in Libya and their policy implications.

Libya may be heading toward new rounds of conflict in the aftermath of its recently aborted elections.

The new executive authority is unlikely to transcend Libya’s institutional divisions, nor break with well-established patterns of intense factional competition within the government.

Russia’s increased involvement in Libya marks a turning point in the conflict, making an Ankara-Kremlin rapprochement all the more likely.

As the most powerful external actor involved in the conflict, Washington’s signals matter. Trump’s call appears to rest on a mistaken but well-trodden narrative, advanced by Haftar’s forces, his Arab backers, and his western sympathizers.