Having lost much of its support among Moldovans following its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin is prepared to use the Gagauzia region to destabilize the situation in Moldova and undermine its pro-EU president, Maia Sandu.

Not only will reabsorbing the breakaway region be expensive and complicated, but Russia is unlikely to cede its influence without a fight.

Infighting over the succession and growing frustration in the regions could shatter the stability that the Tajik president has been building for so many years.

Sensing the changing mood, many left-wing parties and politicians in Moldova have begun criticizing the war and reversing their pro-Russian positions.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is helping to consolidate Moldovan society in favor of EU integration and emancipation from Moscow, and no future leadership will be able to ignore that consensus.

The power transfer in Turkmenistan from father to son and back again is a stark example of how fragile the process of transition can be in authoritarian systems, even when the ideal conditions have been created.