The probability of severe economic consequences around the world is substantial and increasing.

The global economic outlook for 2012 and 2013 is exceptionally uncertain. With the euro crisis continuing to fester, a global credit crunch, and generalized slowdown threatening emerging markets, it remains unclear where growth will come from.

While the global economic crisis runs deeper than the euro, the inadequate institutional set up of the European Monetary Union greatly complicates matters.

Europe's latest leaders summit was important, but it was just a step in a multi-year process of redressing the situation.

A situation where Europe is unraveling, the United States is indecisive, and Japan is facing major long-term problems, calls into question the belief system and power system that has driven the global economy for the last fifty or sixty years.

Policymakers must realize that the world has changed with the deep crisis in the advanced countries and everyone has to adapt to that.

There is a huge opportunity in Africa with enormous global demand for commodities and the private sector can thrive in reformed economies.

Europe is trying to solve its economic problems through further fiscal integration and greater financial oversight, but fears are high that the steps taken thus far are not enough to stem the crisis.

Turmoil in the Middle East has injected huge uncertainty into oil markets. Could unrest spread to Saudi Arabia, Iran, or others in the region and disrupt oil supplies? What will be the consequences for the global recovery? What can policy makers do?

As fears rise over currency clashes, policy makers must confront the challenges of a two-speed global economy where China and other emerging markets are surging ahead while Europe, the United States, and Japan face a number of serious economic concerns.