Source: Carnegie
Democratic Mirage in the Middle East
Policy Brief 20
Marina Ottaway, Thomas Carothers, Amy Hawthorne, Daniel Brumberg
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Summary
The increasingly popular idea in Washington that the United States, by toppling
Saddam Hussein, can rapidly democratize Iraq and unleash a democratic tsunami
in the Middle East is a dangerous fantasy. The U.S. record of building democracy
after invading other countries is mixed at best and the Bush administration's
commitment to a massive reconstruction effort in Iraq is doubtful. The repercussions
of an intervention in Iraq will be as likely to complicate the spread of democracy
in the Middle East as promote it. The United States has an important role to
play in fostering democracy in the region, but the task will be slow and difficult
given the unpromising terrain and lack of U.S. leverage over key governments.
About the Authors
Marina Ottaway, senior associate in the Democracy
and Rule of Law Project at the Carnegie Endowment, is the author or editor
of more than ten books on comparative politics including the forthcoming Democracy
Challenged: The Rise of Semiauthoritarianism (Carnegie Endowment, January
2003). She is also the coauthor of Rebuilding
Afghanistan: Fantasy versus Reality (Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief
No. 12)
Thomas Carothers directs Carnegie's Democracy and Rule of Law Project
and is a leading specialist on democracy promotion. He is the author of several
books and many articles on the subject including Aiding
Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve (Carnegie Endowment, 1999).
Amy Hawthorne is associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law Project and
a specialist in Arab politics. She is the author of a forthcoming monograph
on U.S. democracy promotion in the Middle East.
Dan Brumberg is visiting scholar in the Democracy and Rule of Law Project
and associate professor of government at Georgetown University. He has written
widely on political and social change in the Middle East including Reinventing
Khomeini: The Struggle for Reform in Iran (University of Chicago, 2001).
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