Source: Carnegie
LIBERALIZATION VERSUS DEMOCRACY
Understanding Arab Political Reform
Working Paper No. 37
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Summary
No American administration has talked more about democracy in the Middle
East than the Bush administration. The president and his advisors have spoken
optimistically about a post-Saddam democracy in Iraq, one that might eventually
become a veritable light to other Arab nations. This grand vision assumes that
sooner or later, advocates of democracy throughout the Middle East will demand
the same freedoms and rights that Iraqis are now claiming. Yet, however inspiring
this vision appears, the actual reform plan that the administration has thus
far set out is unlikely to produce radical changes in the Arab world. Regardless
of how dramatic the change in Baghdad is, when it comes to our friends in Egypt,
Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Yemen, the administration's reform plan points
to evolution rather than revolution.
In this working paper Daniel Brumberg argues that before the United States can determine whether this gradualist approach to democratic reform is the best remedy, we must first understand how Arab autocracies actually work, and, in particular, how the "liberalized autocracies" of the region endure despite frequent prediction of their imminent death.
This is the second in a series of working papers that will frame key issues
relating to democracy promotion policies and programs in the Middle East. Also
in the series: Promoting
Democracy in the Middle East: The Problem of U.S. Credibility, Marina
Ottaway.
About the Author
Daniel Brumberg is a visiting scholar in the Carnegie Endowment's Democracy
and Rule of Law Project, on leave from his position as associate professor
at Georgetown University. He is the author of Reinventing Khomeini: The Struggle
for Reform in Iran (University of Chicago Press, 2001) and the coauthor
of
Democratic Mirage in the Middle East (Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief
No. 20).
Available only online.