Source: Carnegie

For Immediate Release: April 16, 2003
Contact: Jayne Brady, 202-939-2372, jbrady@ceip.org

"War in Iraq Poses Lingering Risks to U.S. Energy Security"
Olcott Testimony to Senate Foreign Relations Now on Web

"The events in Iraq will pose a lingering risk to US energy security, irrespective of the fact that the war is being undertaken to meet a set of broader security concerns," says testimony by Martha Brill Olcott, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She says that it will be several years before Iraqi self-rule can be determined a success.

"Until that time, the risk of instability in other oil-producing states in the Persian Gulf is likely to remain quite high, and if U.S.-led democracy-building efforts are successful in Iraq, the risk to many of these regimes may well be intensified," she adds.

Oil reserves in non-gulf states also pose risks to U.S. energy security and supply, says Olcott, citing energy operations in Nigeria and Venezuela. Olcott sees these situations as potential harbingers of problems in other small, oil-producing countries in Africa and the Caspian. Her testimony reviews political and economic conditions in these countries as well as the Caspian regions’ "new producers"-Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan. She assesses Russia’s unique position as a restored producer in a similar context.

Olcott’s testimony brings to light the delicate political landscape in the region, and what can be expected from the new post-soviet generation of leaders. She concludes with a discussion of the "hidden" security costs for the United States created by crises in the oil industry and broader energy sector.

"It is still too early to predict the impact that this war will have on the oil industry in Iraq, not to mention the political climate in neighboring oil-producing countries and in the Middle East region, more generally. The fact that there are certain to be long-term and unpredictable outcomes of the war in Iraq on energy security highlights the way in which oil specifically, and energy, more generally, is intertwined with a host of other security factors."

The full text of the testimony is available at www.ceip.org/russia

Martha Brill Olcott is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment. She specializes in the problems of democratic and economic transition in Central Asia and the Caucasus and security challenges in the Caspian Region.

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